Author: H. Sterling Burnett
from climaterealism
Bloomberg recently published an article arguing that Hurricane Berrier and other natural disasters that regularly hit the state are symptoms of climate change and that Texas’ pro-fossil fuel policies are partly to blame. Bloomberg's article is wrong and is a classic case of blaming the victim (Texas residents) for something 100% beyond their control (i.e. the weather). Beryl was not the first hurricane or tropical storm to hit Texas, contrary to some media reports. Although climate warming was modest, data suggests hurricanes or other extreme weather events in Texas or across the country There is no worsening trend. In short, contrary to Bloomberg’s unsubstantiated assertions, there is no “signal” that climate change is causing or exacerbating weather disasters in Texas.
In “Hurricane Beryl Mocks Texas Climate Deniers,” written by Opinion Editor Mark Kongloff, Kongloff used Hurricane Beryl as a news hook, writing:
on Monday [July 8],nation [Texas] Warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico are fueling Hurricane Beryl's attack for the third time, wreaking havoc on Caribbean islands, Jamaica and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. It made landfall south of Houston as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing high winds, storm surge and heavy rainfall that left millions without power amid sweltering heat.
Gonlov's story was mostly accurate, but then he went completely off the rails, writing:
Quiz time: Which U.S. state is most vulnerable to climate-induced weather disasters and soaring home insurance costs, but is also experiencing rapid growth and a government hostile to the concept of climate change? The obvious answer is Florida, with its hurricanes and flooding and a governor who likes to pull stunts. However, the correct answer is Texas.
No state has suffered more climate-related damage over the past few decades than the Lone Star State—not even Florida, California, or Louisiana. The cost of homeowners insurance in Texas rose more than other states last year and over the past five years, according to S&P Global. Although Florida Governor Ron DeSantis bans mention of climate change, Texas’ aggressive pro-global warming policies do work and continue to cause real harm. Especially to Texas.
While Texas does experience more weather-related disasters than almost any other state when counting hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and floods, this is due to its unique geography (relative to natural weather patterns), size, vulnerability to extreme The population in areas with weather disasters has grown faster; the number and severity of extreme weather events has not changed.
Long-term trends show that despite moderate warming, extreme weather has not increased due to rapid development and use of fossil fuels. In contrast, the state has benefited significantly from the development and use of fossil fuels, a significant reason for strong job, economic and population growth. In fact, the top four highest-grossing industries in Texas are gasoline and oil wholesale, oil and natural gas extraction, oil refining, and gasoline and oil bulk stations, which alone generate more than $1.13 trillion in revenue for the state. This does not include the billions of dollars in revenue generated by the chemical refining industry, which produces plastics, fertilizers, pesticides, lubricants and other fossil fuel-based products that are widely used in Texas, the United States and around the world as a overall. Gonloff estimates the cost of natural disasters in Texas at $350 billion since 1980, but those costs pale in comparison to the benefits from fossil fuels during the same period. In fact, the revenue generated by wholesale gasoline and oil in the most recent year alone was $486.5 billion, which is greater than the losses caused by weather-related disasters during the entire 44-year period Gonlov calculated.
Of course, it's unclear whether long-term climate change will cause any of the weather-related losses Texas has suffered since 1980, as there is no evidence that it makes hurricanes, tornadoes, floods or wildfires more severe or more frequent.
First, let’s discuss beryl and hurricanes more broadly. Contrary to what some reports suggest, Beryl is not unprecedented. On June 26, 1986, Hurricane Bonnie made landfall in southern Texas, bringing more than 13 inches of rain and triggering tornadoes that killed four people. According to statistics, June 26 is nearly two weeks earlier than July 8. La Marina made landfall, bringing heavy rain, high winds, tornadoes, and flooding along the Texas coast and Rio Grande Valley. Since 1980 alone, six other named storms have made landfall in Texas in June, not counting storms that occurred before 1980. 124 years after global warming, still the worst hurricane.
In terms of hurricanes more broadly, real-world data clearly shows that as the Earth warms modestly, there is no increase in the number of hurricanes or major hurricanes (see chart below)
The data also shows that there is no trend in the number of tornadoes in Texas increasing as the earth warms. Instead, it shows that the number of tornadoes increases and decreases year by year with no predictable or identifiable pattern. Nationally, despite better detection and tracking methods, as discussed in Climate Overview: Tornadoes, the number of tornadoes, especially large tornadoes (F3 or higher), has increased over the past 45 years. has declined. Sadly, while this is true, this is not the impression one gets from mainstream media coverage of tornadoes.
Regarding wildfires, the National Park Service reports that wildfires have been a constant concern in Texas, from the arid, scrubby western regions of the state, to the prairies of central and mountainous Texas, to the pine forests of East Texas. part of Sri Lanka's history.
In a classic example of yellow journalism, Gonloff attributed the historic Smokehouse Creek wildfires in February and March 2024 in the West and Northern Texas Panhandle to droughts caused by climate change. However, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Texas show that the state has seen a downward trend in hot days and a slight increase in precipitation since the 1950s. The United Nations International Panel on Climate Change also believes that fire weather has not become more common, and wrote in Chapter 12 on page 90 of the Sixth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that “fire weather” has not become more common due to climate change. And appear.
With fewer hot days and more precipitation recorded in long-term climate records, the idea that climate change has made current conditions conducive to Texas wildfires simply doesn't hold up.
More directly, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, the area plagued by the Smokehouse Creek Fire has not experienced any degree of drought, and neighboring areas in Oklahoma have not been affected by wildfires and are even “abnormally dry.” . In fact, because the area had had so much rain in the previous months, the grasses were growing so well that when they dried out, it created a tinderbox situation that only needed a spark to ignite.
Despite the alarming headlines one may read in the mainstream media, the amount of area and area lost to wildfires worldwide during recent periods of modest climate change has increased, according to satellite data from NASA and the European Space Agency. The volume has dropped significantly.
It is irresponsible of Bloomberg to publish this article, which is filled with inaccurate and misleading statements. As former Democratic Senator and Ambassador Daniel Patrick Moynihan once said, “Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion, but not to his or her facts.” There is no evidence that climate change is worsening its impact in Texas or extreme weather events across the country, there is no reason to blame the continued development and use of extremely beneficial fossil fuels in Texas for the harm caused by natural disasters, which will undoubtedly continue.
H. Sterling Burnett
Dr. H. Sterling Burnett is director of the Arthur Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy and editor-in-chief of Environment and Climate News. In addition to directing the Heartland Institute's Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy, Burrett puts together environment and climate news and is editor of the Heartland Climate Change Weekly email, as well as Environment and Climate Host of a news podcast.
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