How will rain and wind affect Royal Troon?

As the Scots say, “No wind blows, no rain, but no golf.” This is especially true during the Open Championship, not only because of the excellent links courses on which the tournament is played, but also because of the weather and Unpredictability and variability of elements.

Conditions for Thursday and Friday's tournament look reasonable, according to the official 2024 British Open forecast released by the National Meteorological Office on Wednesday. But by the weekend, the forecast began with an ominous note: “Low confidence in weekend details.”

This combination would become a hallmark of the Open.

Most people remember the 2002 Muirfield Open, when Tiger Woods' chances of a single-year major were blown away by an unexpected storm on Saturday, when his third-round score soared to 81, It was the highest score of his career at the time.

While we don’t expect such conditions this week (at least not yet), Scotland has already had a pretty wet summer, and according to The Golf’s Sean Zak on Monday, Royal Troon’s The long grass is getting thicker and dandelions are sprouting in the meadow. Rain is currently forecast for all four days of the championship, but the total amount and timing are uncertain. The heaviest and longest rainfall is likely on Saturday.

Then there’s the seaside breeze off Scotland’s southwest coast. Wind gusts are expected to exceed 20 mph throughout the week, with the strongest winds expected on Friday afternoon, making late/early departure times more favorable this week.

The good news is that while Sunday's weather forecast is still up in the air, as of Wednesday the weather is expected to be “drier and brighter,” meaning the champions should have pleasant weather heading into victory.

Read on for the full Open Championship week predictions below, and check back for updates as the tournament progresses and new predictions are released.

Open Championship Weather Forecast

From the Met Office.

(This article will be updated throughout the week as new forecasts are released.)

Thursday

weather: Cloudy with intermittent light rain or drizzle during the day. The weather becomes breezy in the late afternoon, with longer periods of rain and drizzle possible.
rainfall: 1-3mm, 20% 4-8mm
temperature (High):18°C (64°F)
wind: S or SSE 12-15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph, strongest in the afternoon. By evening, winds will weaken to 8-12 mph, with gusts of 15-20 mph.

Friday

weather: Cloudy overnight with further rainfall possible, sometimes drizzle. Becoming drier, we may see some brighter weather at times.
rainfall: 0-1mm, 20% 2-3mm
temperature (High):20-21°C (68-69°F)
wind: Initial speeds of 5-10 mph, with gusts of 10-15 mph, gradually increasing to 12-15 mph, with gusts of 20-25 mph throughout the morning. Wind gusts of 28-32 mph are possible Friday afternoon.

Saturday

weather: Lack of confidence in weekend details. Showers or longer periods of rain are possible on Saturday, with uncertainty over the timing and amount of rainfall likely to remain.
rainfall: not applicable
temperature (High):18°C (64°F)
wind: Breezy at times, with winds between southwest and west

Sunday

weather: Lack of confidence in weekend details. Sunday will likely be drier and brighter.
rainfall: not applicable
temperature (High):18°C (64°F)
wind: Breezy at times, with winds between southwest and west

Jack Hersh

Golf Network Editor

Jack Hirsh is an assistant editor at GOLF. Jack is a Pennsylvania native and a 2020 graduate of Penn State University with degrees in broadcast journalism and politics. He was captain of the high school golf team and recently returned to the program as head coach. Jack also “struggles” to stay competitive among local amateurs. Prior to joining GOLF, Jack worked for a television station in Bend, Oregon for two years, primarily as a multimedia reporter/journalist while also producing, hosting and even presenting weather. You can contact him at jack.hirsh@golf.com.