AccuWeather meteorologists said weather conditions in the eastern United States will be in two states from Thursday into the weekend, with dry and cool air in the north and moisture in the south with heavy downpours filling the air.
A weather division will develop after strong gusty winds and severe thunderstorms develop across much of the east midweek.
Temporary reprieve from heat, storms in Midwest and Northeast
Conditions from the Great Lakes to the Northeast will be ideal for most outdoor plans, with air conditioning in some areas and along the Northeast coast beginning to take a break Thursday night. Many people can open their windows and let in fresh, cool air for a while.
In most cases, midday and afternoon temperatures remain warm enough for swimming. For those exercising or working outdoors, conditions will be more relaxed, with lower humidity than typical in late July and cooler temperatures than the past week.
As a core of cold air takes hold, high temperatures will reach the 70s in northern areas and mountains by the end of the week. Highs in Chicago will be in the 80s. New York City and Cincinnati are expected to peak in the mid-80s. Meanwhile, highs in Washington, D.C., will be in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees, 10-15 degrees cooler than the peak of 104 degrees earlier this week.
Accordingly, by the end of the week, lows will be in the 50s in northern areas and mountains, around 70 in New York City, and in the lower 70s in Washington, D.C. Cincinnati.
The weather Thursday into the weekend will also be a welcome break for some parts of the north that have been hit by rain in recent weeks.
There are some exceptions to dry mode. Portions of the Northern Plains will experience some shower and thunderstorm activity along the western edge of the Canadian High, which will slowly spread eastward and reach parts of the western and northern Great Lakes region this weekend. However, this activity appears to be uneven.
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Likewise, very erratic shower and thunderstorm activity is possible this weekend over portions of the central Appalachians and the upper Northeast. However, these showers will only affect a small part of the area for a few minutes of the day. That means that, for those still looking for relief from drought concerns that have grown in recent weeks, any meaningful rainfall before Thursday morning will most likely not happen until Monday at the earliest.
The area from Virginia to Tennessee will be the dividing line between mainly rain-free weather to the north and showers and thunderstorms to the south.
Heavy rain and thunder in southeastern states for days
A prolonged period of showers and thunderstorms is expected to extend from the central Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachian Mountains and southern Atlantic coast, with some areas receiving drought-relieving moisture from frequent downpours. Enough rain will disrupt outdoor plans and possibly even cause flash flooding.
“Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are possible late this week into the weekend, but if the downpours continue, totals of 6 inches or more are possible,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Elizabeth Danco said.
Parts of the Carolina Coast, southern Louisiana and the southern Appalachian Mountains are most likely to see rainfall amounts approaching 6 inches. However, similar rainfall is possible in small areas across the Southeast.
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Some severe downpours could bring 1-2 inches of rain per hour, enough to cause urban flooding problems.
For the Southeast, the same pattern may continue into next week.
Frequent downpours help avoid the daytime heat, but the weather can get stickier at night as humidity remains high. General highs will be in the 80s, with a few spots reaching the 90s, and rain will continue for several hours in the afternoon.
High temperatures will typically be a few degrees below historical averages due to widespread cloud coverage and frequent showers.
Humidity, showers and thunderstorms will expand northward next week
Over the next week, the protective influence of Canadian high pressure will slowly dissipate from the Midwest to the Northeast.
While this is unlikely to open the floodgates for southern moisture to spread across the region, it will bring rising humidity levels, warmer nighttime temperatures and create an environment more conducive to showers and thunderstorms breaking out, at least locally.
Even following this pattern, some areas may continue to miss out on daily rainfall into next week.
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