Scott Hamilton
July 19, 2024 © Leeham News: In its latest 20-year aircraft demand forecast, Boeing expects air traffic to return to near pre-pandemic levels.
Airbus announced a similar path last week in its 20-year forecast, predicting growth through 2043. The difference in numbers between Airbus and Boeing is not huge. Boeing includes 70-90-seat regional jets; Airbus does not forecast the RJ market. Boeing expects just over 1,500 RJ deliveries over the next 20 years in a market that has been shrinking for years.
Embraer, the only RJ manufacturer outside China and Russia, has yet to release its forecast for 2024 (which is usually released during international air shows – Farnborough air show takes place next week). It also did not detail the RJ, a single-aisle jet with up to 150 seats, in its forecast.
In its 2024 forecast released last month, Japan Aircraft Development Corporation (JADC) forecast new RJ deliveries in the 61-100-seat segment at 1,584, very close to Boeing RJ numbers and Boeing and Airbus combined. JADC's forecast is the only one that provides detailed information on the RJ, single-channel and dual-channel market sub-sectors.
