This title might raise some eyebrows, so let me explain. Yes, in a world that warms due to increased carbon dioxide (CO2), the statistics of “unusually warm” years will increase. [emphasis, links added]
But assuming that the warming is entirely due to a slight energy imbalance in the climate system (currently about 1%) caused by a steady increase in carbon dioxide, the resulting warming would be about 0.02 degrees. C every year.
What a difference from that small 0.02 degrees. C is getting warmer every year due to natural climate changes.
This can be easily proven using a simple one-dimensional energy balance model. Any differences are due to natural weather and climate changes.
If we take the UAH global lower tropospheric temperature product as an example, the temperature in 2023 will rise by 0.51 degrees. C is above the 1991-2020 average.
Use our +0.14 degree trend. C per decade is used as the baseline for the warming rate, then it should be +0.25 degrees Celsius in 2023. C is higher than the baseline, but the temperature is twice as high.
so, About half of the warmth is natural (again assuming that the background warming trend is 100% human-caused).
So when we get a very warm year (like 2023, maybe 2024) Then it's mostly something other than carbon dioxide that's to blame.
All the media and environmentalist hype is just noise.
Really warm years will be offset by cool ones (which no one reports because it's not newsworthy), so The long-term temperature trend remains at ~0.02°C. Warming every year (our satellite data increases by 0.014 degrees Celsius per year).
again, Assuming that the long-term warming trend is 100% attributable to carbon dioxide, The 0.02 value assumes climate sensitivity at the low end of IPCC projections, This is consistent with observation-based climate sensitivity diagnosis; You can change it to 0.03 if you want and my point still stands.
It's really that simple.
Learn more on Dr. Roy Spencer's blog
