The hurricane climatology motto “June, it's too early; June, it's too early;” July, stand by; August, they must come; September, remember; “October, it's over” dates back to the 1800s of the British Caribbean Fleet.
While this mnemonic frees up bandwidth to raise awareness of sea monsters and Johnny Depp's antics, “stand by” is a notoriously ambiguous wording.
In most years, “standby” may overstate tropical activity in July. In 2024, the words of these ancient sailors are too passive for the devastating Category 4 landfall of Hurricane Beryl in the Windward Islands, Category 2 landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula, and Category 1 landfall in Texas. .
Saharan dust and cutting will keep July safe from hurricanes and tropical storms
Of course, like sunshine after a rain, the power had not fully returned before the whispers of “Where was that hurricane you predicted?!” start.
The answer is: July, usually in the ocean outside the Atlantic Ocean. That is, 55 years ago this week, when Apollo 11 returned from the Moon, its splashdown location in the western Pacific had to be moved 250 miles at the last minute due to the development of a tropical disturbance. Meanwhile, there have been no named storms in the Atlantic in 1969 to date.
While Beryl has been a July hurricane for many years, the remainder of July 2024 looks set to continue the tropical Atlantic tradition of weakness, as no tropical disturbance will develop in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf regions, with the potential to develop within the next week .
Some tropical moisture may begin to increase rain chances across Florida starting Monday, but nothing will be organized. Saharan dust, high wind shear and upper-level sinking air are expected to persist until the end of the month, making any development an uphill battle for the foreseeable future.
Number of hurricanes making landfall in July
In the second entry of our six-part guide to hurricane season, we'll see that July is a month full of boredom and letter grades and rewrites of masters and climate assessments. (You can read Part 1 (June) of this article online.)
July and September are both hurricane season months, just like Earth and Jupiter are both planets in the solar system: this is indeed true, but as 11 Earths would fit the diameter of Jupiter, the average September total would be approx. Tropical activity was 11 times above average for July. (In this metaphor, May is Pluto, but that's a different column.)
July remains a precursor to the peak of hurricane season from late August to mid-October.
On Earth, Atlantic tropical storms form at least 60% of the time in July.
Powerful storms remain uncommon, with only nine Category 3 or higher storms since 1900, including Beryl. accounted for 9% of total U.S. landing activity.
Interestingly, U.S. landfalls are more common in early or late July, with conditions significantly subdued in mid-month. A golden period indeed.
Where do July storms come from?
The mid-July gap exists for a reason. The main spark that forms the storm at the end of the month is primarily a tropical wave, a change that mixes with the Central American circulation, stalling fronts, and tropical waves in early July.
The frequency of the first two development modes drops faster than the latter rises, so there's usually an opportunity to head to the lobby for a treat when the reels change.
The map shows that there are far more tropical developments east of the Lesser Antilles than in June, but far less than in August and September.
Where do July storms usually make landfall?
As a transition month between weaker early season activity closer to the continental United States and potentially stronger peak season activity further out, July is not significantly affected by landfall risk.
The historical odds do lean toward the Gulf Coast, especially Texas. Although Florida's east coast has been hit by hurricanes only a few times in July in the past 170 years, the northern portion of the U.S. southeast coast has also seen several hurricane landfalls.
Overall, the historical chances of at least one July storm or hurricane making landfall in the continental United States are about 30% and 15% respectively.
In Florida, the chance of a named storm is about 10% and the chance of a hurricane is about 5%. So July landfalls aren't unusual, but they're not exactly the norm either.
July's Big Hits and Worst Case Scenarios
Like June, July lags behind in the number of major hurricanes making landfall in the United States, with only three on record going back to 1851. Wind speeds hit between Destin and Pensacola, tied for the strongest U.S. landfalls this month.
Dennis caused widespread wind and flooding across the western Panhandle, and its approach angle, size, and intensity created record storm surges that affected much of the Florida Gulf Coast. Sadly, Dennis killed 15 people in the United States and 39 in the Caribbean.
Between Dennis and Category 1 Hurricane Cindy, which hit near New Orleans, 2005 is the only year two July hurricanes made landfall in the United States.
Meaning: Fasten your seat belts, the peak is coming
The total amount of storm energy that occurs across the Atlantic before August does not predict how busy the season's August-September-October peak will be, but, as I've discussed before, hurricanes develop during the season in June or July's tropical Atlantic or eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean are above average or hyperactive at their peak.
Favorable conditions for beryl production may return sometime in August, which may result in a continued burst of hurricane activity. WeatherTiger's live forecast remains about double the normal hurricane season storm activity.
The most important thing is to enjoy your rest, but don't be proud, kid.
Huge fan of astronaut ice cream, and two non-consecutive coronavirus infections on EPCOT's mission: Space, being in low orbit in July doesn't mean we're not headed for interstellar/planetary peaks.
Be prepared to react.
Finally, a grade for the Sailors: C+. “Stand-by” is not a position, and neither is awarding the crew of HMS Pinafore a C+. If you asked me to sum up July's hurricane history in a breezy, ambiguous rhyme, I would definitely choose “Keep your eyes on the sky, July.”
Dr. Ryan Truchelut is the Chief Meteorologist for WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee company that provides forensic weather expert witness services as well as agricultural and hurricane forecast subscription services. access Meteorological Tiger Network For more information, please email Truchelut: ryan@weathertiger.com.
