Forecasts for the Chicago area include an enhanced Day 1 (severity 3 out of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center and a slight risk of severe and excessive rainfall (severity 2 out of 5) from the Weather Prediction Center.
The weather is expected to be sunny Monday morning, with temperatures rising to around 90 degrees across the region Monday afternoon. As convection weakens upstream, upper-level clouds are likely to increase by this afternoon, leading to reduced confidence in widespread high temperatures in the mid-90s. However, combined with surface dew points in the mid to upper 70s, especially across rural Illinois farmland, the Monday afternoon heat index could reach 105-110 degrees Fahrenheit for at least part of Monday.
Heat warnings are in effect for Illinois counties approximately south of a line from Forreston to Joliet to Beecher between noon and 7 p.m. CDT, where temperatures Most likely to reach 105 degrees Fahrenheit and above. If clouds are thinner or less widespread Monday afternoon, temperatures could be higher than expected and heat warnings could be extended further north and east into the Chicago metro area.
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected Monday afternoon into Monday night. Thunderstorm development will depend on how the cluster of thunderstorms currently developing over the eastern Dakotas evolves through the remainder of the morning.
The area of surface low pressure across the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes is expected to deepen tonight as a mid-level shortwave moves through the southern/southeast edge of the upper low over eastern Manitoba/western Ontario (a forecast this week A lot of cold air will arrive from Canada later in the day). A weak cold front is expected to move slowly southeast along this low through the upper Mississippi Valley, eventually reaching northern Illinois later tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in northwestern Illinois ahead of a cold front by mid-to-late afternoon, and within a very warm/humid high “heated” air mass over Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, with dew points in the upper 70s about.
High-end strong winds appear to be the greatest threat in these storms; however, there are indications that sufficient low-level shear is present that would conditionally support tornado threats in front-line storms.
Severe threats appear to be primarily concentrated at night, with the potential for a longer period to the far east/southeast near northwest Indiana (similar to Sunday night).
The threat of localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding will also exist, particularly along the trailing portion of the linear mesoscale convective system (MCS), which may be more organized than the initial individual thunderstorms and may become more westerly oriented after midnight East.
weather radar The weather will be clear in northeastern Illinois, with severe storms expected to break out in Arlington Heights and northwest Cook County around 7:00 to 8:00 p.m.
You can also take a look Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds
Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move through the area this evening and continue into this evening. Although tornadoes, large hail and flash flooding are all possible, strong damaging winds are the primary concern. pic.twitter.com/iw2vI42qXw
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 15, 2024
Stronger to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight, with more storms possible tomorrow, primarily south of Interstate 80. After another warm spell today, the weather is getting more comfortable as we approach midweek. pic.twitter.com/IK8MjIAldd
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 15, 2024
The region will experience dangerously hot and humid conditions today, with afternoon heat indexes in the 100-110° range. Heat warnings have been issued for parts of northern and central Illinois, where the hottest weather is expected. pic.twitter.com/bbCaab3I9w
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) July 15, 2024
O'Hare predicts…
on Monday: Mostly sunny with a high near 92.
Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly before 1am. Some storms can be severe and produce heavy rains. Mostly cloudy with low pressure around 73 degrees. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three-quarters and an inch are possible.
Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms are possible between 7 a.m. and 1 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 84 degrees. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday night: Partly cloudy, with low pressure around 66 degrees.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with highs near 80 degrees.
Wednesday night: Mostly sunny, with a low around 62.
Thursday: The weather is sunny and the maximum temperature is close to 76.
Thursday night: Sunny, low around 58.
Friday: The weather will be sunny with a high near 80.
Friday night: Mostly sunny, with a low around 62.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83 degrees.
Saturday night: Partly cloudy, with a low of about 65 degrees.
Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 83 degrees.
Temps Lake…
Southern Michigan Lake water temperature
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Monday, July 15, 2024 at 920 AM CDT
Lake Michigan water temperature…
Chicago Shore…………..71.
Chicago Crib………64.
Chicago Buoy………71.
Wilmette Buoy…………..72.
Walkergan Buoy…………..70.
Winthrop Harbor Buoy…71.
Michigan City Buoy…72.
Nanzhong Lake Buoy…69.
Central Lake Buoy…69.
Beizhong Lake Buoy…..68.
&&
july.chicagoweatherstation.com
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