There's good news and not-so-good news for local almond growers, but mostly good news.
First, the good: The state's almond production forecast is 2.8 billion pounds, 13% higher than last year's 2.47 billion pounds — a forecast based on nearly 1.4 million acres planted.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA-NASS) released this estimate in the 2024 California Almond Target Measurement Report.
Not so good news? The meat production forecast of 2.8 billion pounds is down 7% from the May subjective forecast.
“The objective measurement was in line with industry expectations and lower than subjective estimates,” said Clarice Turner, president and CEO of the California Almond Board. “It reflects the good bloom and growth of California almond growers during a difficult time. work hard.
“Longer term, demand has been strong, sustained and growing, which has driven carryout volumes to their lowest levels in years. Through the first 10 months of this crop year, California almond shipments were at least 212 million pounds, averaging That's 230 million pounds per month. The industry has never shipped 200 million pounds for 10 consecutive months in the same crop year.
Turner went on to say that the Almond Board expects supplies to be similar to those seen in the past 2023-24 crop year.
“The actual supply of California almonds on the market is a combination of production and carryover from the previous year,” Turner said. “We expect only minor changes, if any, to market supplies in the next crop year as the expected increase in crop production will be mostly offset by smaller carryovers. Clearly, global demand is strong and continuing. We will continue to work hard to meet growing demand.
The Nonpareil variety accounts for nearly 40% of California's total almond production, with production expected to be 1.1 billion pounds, 17% higher than last year's total.
The 2024 almond crop experienced mostly favorable weather during the flowering period, which began in mid-February and ended a month later.
According to reports, the flight time of bees was significantly higher than last year. Wet and warm weather in April increased pest and disease pressure, but dry conditions and mild temperatures in May aided crop growth. Multiple heat waves occurred across the state during June and July, requiring growers to increase irrigation of their orchards. Almond harvest is expected to go on as scheduled.
Each tree bears an average of 4,072 fruits, an increase of 3% from the previous year. The unbeatable average number of nut sets was 4,137, also up 3% from 2023.
The average grain weight of all sampled varieties is 1.61 grams, which is 4% lower than the average grain weight in 2023. The unrivaled average kernel weight was 1.64 grams, a 3% decrease from the 2023 average kernel weight.
The forecast is the second of two USDA National Statistics Service production reports for the next crop year. The first report is an estimate based on a survey of 500 randomly selected California almond growers conducted from April 19 to May 5. The sample of growers changes from year to year and is spread across different regions and businesses of different sizes. The latest report, released last week, is based on actual almond counts from about 1,000 orchards, using more rigorous statistical methods to determine yields.
