In short, they are still coming, and the current disruption in activity is not unexpected or unusual. This could very well be the calm before the storm.
Hurricane season does not peak on average until September 10th, with activity typically continuing into November. Additionally, the weather patterns that are expected to help drive the active season are just starting to form.
The rapid development of a La Niña weather pattern will favor more upward-moving air over the Atlantic, increasing the number of storms that may form. It will also help promote weaker-than-normal upper-altitude winds, which can help strengthen storm organization. Meanwhile, record warm water temperatures will provide plenty of fuel for the storm.
The season so far
Despite recent disruptions, storm activity so far this season has actually been above average. The first named storm of a season forms around June 20 on average; this year, Alberto formed on June 19. Three have formed this year, but Chris was only a fringe storm that lasted only about 12 hours.
Also worth noting: The first hurricane of the season usually doesn't appear until August 11, and a Category 3 or stronger hurricane doesn't usually appear until September 1. It became a hurricane and became an “extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane” on June 30.
What's next?
It's usually around the second or third week of August that the ocean really starts to stir up some storms. At that time, they were most abundant in the main development zone (the area between the west coast of Africa and the eastern Caribbean), which is where most long-range hurricanes form.
Hot and dry air brought by dust bursts from the Sahara Desert is suppressing the growth of tropical systems in the region. The ongoing dust storm in the Sahara Desert is estimated to be the worst since June 2022.
The outbreak of dust storms is likely related to the sinking motion of several huge overturning atmospheric waves crossing the equatorial region. Meteorologists call these convectively coupled Kelvin waves. Each event affects the mood for a week or so.
At the same time, there is a larger-scale overturning wave in the atmosphere called the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). essentially a large area Thunderstorms drift eastward across the global tropics. Hurricanes are more likely to form when the rising phase crosses the Atlantic Ocean.
In recent weeks, the sinking phase of the MJO has been concentrated over the Atlantic Ocean. This helps explain why there were no storms. By around the second week of August, more rising air conducive to thunderstorm development is expected to move across the Atlantic.
By then, ocean temperatures will rise further and the emergence of La Niña will take hold. Storm activity is likely to increase significantly by late August.
During a lull in storm activity, now is a good time to review your hurricane preparedness plan if you live in a susceptible area.
Jason Samenow contributed to this report.
