tropical waves
Tropical waves move south from 19 degrees north latitude near 39 westerlies, moving westward at 1O to 15 knots. There is scattered moderate convection near the southern end of the wave axis.
A tropical wave is moving in the western Caribbean Sea. Its axis runs along 81W, extending south from the Cayman Islands through western Panama. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. This wave, along with upper-level low pressure, continues to enhance convection over parts of the northwest Caribbean Sea, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Yucatan Channel.
Monsoon trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and then extends southwestward to 10N45W. The ITCZ continues westward from 11N45W to near 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is mainly in the S zone of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, from 05N to 10N, and between 16W and 60W.
gulf of mexico
Showers and thunderstorms continue across the southern Gulf, particularly the Bay of Campeche, where an upper-altitude diversion pattern helps trigger this convective activity. A ridge that stretches across Florida to the waters of the Gulf of Mexico dominates the basin. This pattern supports mild to moderate winds and light waves.
The ridge is forecast to continue to dominate Gulf waters in the coming days. It will support moderate to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and light surf. Due to local effects, pulsating moderate to light breezes are expected near and northwest of the northwest Yucatan Peninsula from early evening into Thursday night. Multiple showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the Florida Straits and Southeastern Gulf today as the northern portion of the tropical wave continues westward through the region. The wave axis is expected to reach the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.
Caribbean Sea
A tropical cyclone is moving through the western Caribbean Sea. See the Tropical Waves section for more details.
Recent buoy observations, scatterometer data, and altimeters confirm the presence of fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 11 feet over much of the central Caribbean. These winds and seas are the result of the North Atlantic Ridge forming over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea following the passage of tropical waves currently crossing the western Caribbean Sea. Fresh northeasterly to easterly winds funnel through the Mona Strait in the southern Dominican Republic. Mild to moderate winds were evident elsewhere, with 5 to 7 foot seas at 80W and 3 to 5 feet in the rest of the basin.
Low-level clouds embedded in the trade wind flow are moving across the basin, producing isolated scattered showers. These low-level cloud patches are more concentrated over the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S./British Virgin Islands, and eastern Puerto Rico, including area waters. San Juan Doppler radar confirmed the existence of this meteor shower activity.
The aforementioned tropical wave is forecast to move across the rest of the western Caribbean today and reach the Yucatan Peninsula by tonight. High pressure from the mid-Atlantic will intensify, along with an increase in fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas, possibly reaching 11 or 12 feet over the south-central Caribbean this morning. Trade winds and associated oceans will weaken slightly on Tuesday and then strengthen over the eastern and central Caribbean for the remainder of the forecast period as Atlantic high pressure strengthens.
Atlantic
The upper low is rotating around 28N68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with this system. Increased convection over the northwest Bahamas and southern Florida is associated with another upper-level low north of the tropical wave and over western Cuba and the Florida Straits. The Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters, with the 1,026 MW main center located southwest of the Azores near 34N38W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressure over northwest Africa resulted in fresh to strong winds in the 6 to 9 foot range near the coast of Morocco and between the Canary Islands. Météo-France is predicting near-gale winds in the waters off Agadir and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and 4 to 7 feet of water prevailed, but mainly along the southern edge of the Atlantic Ridge.
For the forecast west of 55W, Bermuda-Azores high pressure will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters over the next few days. The associated pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25°N, with winds increasing along the northern coast of Hispaniola during the late afternoon and evening of the week. The northern portion of the axis along the tropical wave of 81W combines with an upper-level low over western Cuba, leading to the northwest Bahamas, western Cuba, Yucatan Channel, Florida Straits, and South Florida. Today, this convective activity will continue to shift westward, and together with upper-level low swells and tropical waves, strong gusty winds and rough seas are possible.
Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr
