from CFACT
David Wojcik
Systematic statistical analysis suggests that offshore wind development may have killed large numbers of whales since it began around 2016.
It’s called forensic statistical epidemiology. NOAA first officially observed mass die-offs of whales in the Northwest Atlantic in 2016-17, which continues today. This is a forensic test, as killing whales can be highly illegal.
This mathematical feat was accomplished by Apostolos Gerasoulis, professor emeritus of computer science at Rutgers University. This was a computer math problem, not a biology problem, so he was very qualified. See https://www.cs.rutgers.edu/people/professors/details/gerasoulis-apostolos
Professor Gerasoulis confirms with profound statistical evidence the common suspicion that offshore wind sonar surveys are killing whales. There is now no doubt that widespread sonar harassment authorized by NOAA since 2016 contributed to the dramatic increase in whale deaths first reported by NOAA in 2016-17.
Here's a long article that provides some compelling evidence:
Given that I and others have been yelling at NOAA about this for two years, this isn't a shocking discovery for us, just tragic proof that we were right. For example:
https://www.cfact.org/2022/09/27/how-to-kill-whales-with-offshore-wind
https://www.cfact.org/2023/01/23/evidence-says-offshore-wind-development-is-killing-lots-of-whales/
I have pointed out many times that the overall mortality rate of humpback whales doubles when sonar blasts begin. Gerasoulis found that in the areas where investigations were most active, death rates surged a staggering fivefold.
This groundbreaking work required a computer guru because it was a complex computational problem. He geographically documented all fatalities and all sonar blast routes over time and then studied the profound correlations. It is statistically impossible that these correlations between sonar blasts and whale deaths are just coincidence.
Note that sonar blasts do not kill whales outright. NOAA predicts it will change the whale's behavior, so all it would have to do is change it in a lethal way, such as causing ship strikes. NOAA actually expects some whales to be deafened.
This is a vivid analogy. Throwing firecrackers at a dog causes it to run into the street and be hit by a car. The car killed the dog, but the firecrackers caused the death. Scientifically, this is known as the primary cause of dog death (firecrackers) versus the final cause (car collision). Sonar blasts are like an endless string of firecrackers that can last for hours or even days.
The media consistently ignored these warnings and never reported on the potential adverse effects of what officials described as “harassment.” In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted and authorized widespread acoustic harassment but never mentioned it. To make matters worse, NOAA never mentions this in their online materials about the whale mortality crisis, despite having it pointed out to them multiple times.
Unfortunately, the incredible sound of piling starting at offshore wind construction sites is now worse than sonar blasting. NOAA's harassment authorization numbers are much higher, in some cases ten times higher. Therefore, unless decisive action is taken, we expect the death toll to increase.
Now that these figures indicate that authorized harassment is likely to be the cause of mass whale deaths, steps must be taken to stop this slaughter. If NOAA continues to authorize potentially lethal disturbances without first studying the data, and if wind developers continue unabated, then every whale killed is a reckless violation of the Marine Mammal Protection Act . Gerasoulis's statistical model can even tell us when this happens.
In light of this compelling new evidence, if NOAA still refuses to act, either the President or Congress should take action. Acoustic harassment continues and whales may die as a result. This reckless killing of whales must stop.
Photo creative sharing Broken Inaglory, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons
