The summer of 2024 could be one of the warmest that Puerto Rico has ever experienced. Therefore, governments and public and private companies must begin taking emergency measures and continue to educate about the possible impacts of extreme heat.
Some recommended measures are: adjust working hours, people should eat light foods (salads, fruits, etc.), it is recommended to wear cool clothes, avoid exposure to the sun between 11 and 4 pm, use sunscreen, but most Importantly, they must be hydrated. Outdoor workers can go to work early to avoid the hottest hours. If the office does not have air conditioning, people who work in the office should have the option of working from home. In addition, cooling centers must be established, as has been done in some places in Europe and the United States.
Puerto Rico heats up
In 2014, I published an article titled “Decade-long increase in hot days in Puerto Rico, 1950-2014.” The publication's findings show an increase in the number of days with temperatures above 32°C, while a decrease in the number of days with a minimum temperature of 15°C. Taking PR as an example, the average temperature on the island increased by 2.24°C during this period. The increase in minimum temperature is more than twice the increase in maximum temperature. In other words, the cooling process of the Earth during the night does not occur due to the greenhouse effect. When the minimum temperature does not reach its most extreme value, it means that the atmosphere is retaining heat and therefore the thermal index (sense of heat) is higher than the measured temperature.
When behavior was analyzed by decade, it was found that behavior increased when cooler days were compared to warmer days. In the 1950s, there were 1.79 hot days for every warm day; by 2000-2009, there were 3.28 warm days for every cool day. This means hot weather has almost doubled. This article is published using data from Puerto Rico, where 15°C is a cool or almost cold day and after 32°C it can be considered a warm day due to generally higher humidity.
In recent years, San Juan, the capital of Puerto Rico, has experienced severe high temperature weather. In 2012, 82% of the summer weather was very warm, with the highest temperature between 30 and 35°C and the lowest temperature above 25°C. This is the longest heat wave San Juan has ever experienced. This trend continued in subsequent years until 2023, the hottest year on record.
Why is Puerto Rico warming?
There are several factors that influence the rise in temperature, from natural to man-made factors. One factor that is often debated is the Milankovitch cycle race. These are created as the Earth orbits the Sun, and its path and tilt of its axis may change slightly. These cycles affect the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth, causing the Earth's temperature to change very slowly. However, the effects of these cycles tend to last tens or hundreds of thousands of years and are unlikely to result in the extreme changes we experience today.
Another factor that must be considered is the El Niño climate phenomenon. Although it develops in the Pacific Ocean as an accumulation of warm water in the equatorial region, it produces large amounts of water vapor that tends to heat the atmosphere reaching our region due to a phenomenon called climate teleconnection.
Models predict that El Niño has now ended, with the transition (neutral) phase expected to last until August. Then, La Niña (cold water) conditions will arrive starting in September. La Niña and the transition phase between the two meteorological phenomena allow tropical cyclones to move freely in the Atlantic Ocean because strong winds are reduced. However, because water is capable of trapping large amounts of heat, and because July and August are supposed to be extremely hot months, they can produce several heat waves in the Caribbean and the United States.
Data collected show that temperatures over the past 40 years have been consistently higher than in any decade since 1850. Years faster than any time in recorded history. Additionally, heat waves are almost certain to increase in intensity and duration. The urban heat island effect exacerbates the impact of global warming on cities, especially at night. The scientific community believes that human influence is the main contributor to these observed changes.
How does Puerto Rico's extreme heat affect residents' health?
In the case of Puerto Rico, there have been no confirmed deaths from extreme heat, but we know what happened. According to the Bureau of Meteorology's 2023 report (Report), we have 142 heat warnings and 31 overheat warnings.
The summer of 2024 has not yet arrived, and the Meteorological Bureau has issued 34 high temperature warnings and 14 overheat warnings. The situation in Puerto Rico is worsening due to frequent power service outages and an increase in dust from the Sahara Desert, which worsens the feeling of sweltering heat, affects the respiratory tract and causes skin and eye irritation.
In a recent United Nations report, Puerto Rico ranked seventh in the world among countries with the highest proportion of people aged 65 and over. For older people, heat can make breathing difficult. Many residents still don’t have air conditioning, which puts even more stress on the bodies of older people.
The latest report from the International Labor Organization shows that more than 70% of the global workforce faces serious health risks related to climate change. Workers around the world face serious health risks due to climate change. The organization estimates that heat causes 22.87 million occupational injuries each year, killing 18,970 people and losing 2.09 million disability-adjusted life years. Don't forget that 26.2 million people worldwide have chronic kidney disease related to workplace heat stress.
Risks increase as planet continues to warm
Some local governments must establish mechanisms to communicate measures to reduce the effects of heat, but it is important that these mechanisms are designed to be effective and equitable. This is why the term “thermal equity” was coined, which refers to the development of policies and practices that mitigate the heat island effect and help people adapt to extreme heat, thereby reducing the uneven distribution of risks among urban populations.
To improve heat equity, it is important to ensure that all residents have equal access to local heat island reduction plans and to plan urban responses to severe heat to meet the specific needs of the most vulnerable residents. Strategies such as planting trees or installing green roofs are often needed to reduce wind chill.
In 2019, the Paris city council launched a program that included the installation of mist showers across the city. Other solutions include extending the opening hours of public swimming pools, keeping some parks open all night and opening cooling rooms in designated public buildings. In the United States, there are cooling centers.
There is no question that the archipelago of Puerto Rico needs to take steps to protect its residents. There are solutions and ways to mitigate the worst effects, but we must work together because as we continue to accelerate global warming, the problem will get worse.
