The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner, which is why I’ve been working on my own hurricane season predictions for the past few months. This isn't your standard “X” number of storm types forecast – this is a look at weather patterns to give you an idea of the “hot spots” for the season as well as the “hot dates” on the calendar so you can have an idea of what the season will be like. . In 2023, our forecast accurately predicts where each named storm will go and when it will make landfall. Curious what it looks like? Here's last year's hot spots and actual storm tracks: So, how do we look this year? 2024 Hotspots Which areas are at greatest risk of tropical system landfall in 2024? I have identified several hotspots along the U.S. coast that have a higher than average likelihood of being directly impacted this hurricane season. ——This has been a huge transformation in recent years. I also want to mention the flow patterns – obviously all pointing toward the eastern Gulf Coast. This is particularly concerning for us Floridians because it tells me that we face not only a greater threat from tropical impacts, but perhaps the greatest threat I have predicted since I began these long-term outlooks many years ago. Now that we understand the overall pattern, let’s start looking at each one one by one. We can start by looking at the part of the pattern that is most relevant to me – the South Florida part of the pattern. department. Discovery – This part of our weather pattern shows a storm system moving through the Big Bend… across Florida… and onto the Carolina coastline. I have watched this weather cycle over and over again and believe it is a key part of our 2024 weather pattern. – October 3 The Gulf Coast Low, first discovered on October 11 and observed numerous times, formed over the Gulf waters and then began to move eastward. Its overall geographical area is larger due to its motion, which is eastward along the Gulf Coast every time it is observed. and September 8-14. Storm Count For this year’s forecast, we delved into the El Niño/La Niña transition. We are about to move away from a fast and strong El Niño – turning into a La Niña late summer or early fall this year. In the five examples we have studied over the past few years (1966, 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2016), there is a clear signal in the overall numbers. During these model years, the number of named storms dropped slightly, but a greater proportion of storms intensified into hurricanes, even major hurricanes. Perhaps what we can conclude is that what takes shape this year may become stronger, stronger than “normal” conditions. Writing function. From sea surface temperatures to La Niña conditions and fancy weather terms like “AO” and “NAO,” you can solve the puzzle, but the main factor that helps clarify the issue and look the distance is the LRC. The Lysac cycle (named after the meteorologist who discovered it) is a technique that uses the past to predict the future. The saying “What goes around comes around, and what goes around comes around” doesn't just apply to life. Ryzak discovered that it also applies to the weather. Before we get into the forecast, let me explain how it all works: The basics of the LRCA's unique weather patterns are established and determined each fall. reaches peak intensity. The weather varies between 40-70 days per year, but once entered, you can predict the weather around the end of the “LRC year” or early October. This means that while it is a great tool, its limitation is that by October 2023 we will start setting new “LRC years”, so the end of hurricane season cannot be predicted so early. The bottom line is going into any hurricane season, we need to be prepared. Please take a moment now to make sure your family has a plan and hurricane kit ready to go should a tropical system threaten our local area. Tropical activity/landfalls are still possible in these areas this season, but the likelihood is closer to average or even below average. An example based on the pattern we identified is the Texas coast – the probability of landfall this season is average or below average. In contrast, the Gulf Coast/West Coast of Florida is in the hot spot. This length of the Florida coast has an above-average chance of a tropical system making landfall during the 2024 hurricane season. It's important to remember that they are not the only features that can produce tropical systems that year. The new 2024-2025 cycle was determined in October, so the situation in October and November will be very different. Email eburris Contact me @hearst.com You can follow my weather updates on social media… Twitter here and Facebook here.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is just around the corner, which is why I’ve been working on it for the past few months Mine Hurricane Seasonal Forecast. This isn't your standard “X” number of storm types forecast – this is a look at weather patterns to give you an idea of the “hot spots” for the season as well as the “hot dates” on the calendar so you can have an idea of what the season will be like. .
Before looking ahead, let's take a look back at last year's performance. In 2023, our forecast accurately predicts where each named storm will go and when it will make landfall. Curious what it looks like? Here are last year's hot spots and actual storm tracks:
So, how do we look this year?
2024 hot spots
Which areas are at greatest risk for a tropical system making landfall in 2024? I found several hotspots along the U.S. coast that have a higher-than-average likelihood of being directly impacted this hurricane season.
The main thing you should note is that threats to the Gulf of Mexico coastline are above average this year—a big shift from past years. I also want to mention the pattern process –
Apparently, all of this points to the eastern Gulf Coast. This is particularly concerning for us Floridians because it tells me that we face not only a greater threat from tropical impacts, but perhaps the greatest threat I have predicted since I began these long-term outlooks many years ago.
Now that we've outlined the overall pattern, let's start analyzing them one by one. We can start by looking at the part of the pattern that is most relevant to me – the South Florida part of the pattern.
south florida storm
This part of the pattern was first spotted in November and has been repeated since, showing a clear threat to South Florida, especially Southwest Florida.
Potential return dates for this part of the mode include May 23-28, July 9-15, and August 26-September 1
Gulf of Mexico to Carolina Low
First spotted around Halloween 2023 – this part of our weather pattern shows the storm system moving through the Big Bend… across Florida… and then onto the Carolina coastline. I've watched this weather cycle over and over again and think it's a key part of the 2024 weather pattern.
Potential return dates for this part of the mode include June 24-29, August 10-16, and September 26-October 3.
gulf coast low pressure
First spotted on October 11 and observed several times – this low pressure formed over the waters of the Gulf and then began to move eastward. Its overall geographical area is large because every time its movement is observed, it moves eastward along the Gulf Coast.
Potential return dates for this part of the model include June 6-10, July 23-28, and September 8-14.
number of storms
For this year’s forecast, we delve into the El Niño/La Niña transition. We are about to move away from a fast and strong El Niño phenomenon – switching to La Niña in late summer or early fall this year. In the five examples we have studied over the past few years (1966, 1973, 1983, 1998 and 2016), there is a clear signal in the overall numbers. During these model years, the number of named storms dropped slightly, but a greater proportion of storms intensified into hurricanes, even major hurricanes. Perhaps what we can conclude is that what takes shape this year may become stronger, stronger than “normal” conditions.
How is this prediction possible?
As crazy as it sounds, there are many factors that come into play in our prediction puzzle. From sea surface temperatures to La Niña and fancy weather terms like “AO” and “NAO,” you can piece together the puzzle, but the main factor that helps clarify the issue and look the distance is the LRC.
The LRC, or Leszac Cycle (named after the meteorologist who discovered it) is a technique that uses the past to predict the future. “What goes around comes around, and what goes around comes around” doesn't just apply to life; Ryzak discovered that it also applies to the weather. Before we get into predictions, let me explain how this all works:
Basics of LRC
- Each fall a unique weather pattern develops and develops.
- long repeat These features are clues as to where the storm system reached its peak intensity and where it was at its weakest.
- Once the weather mode is set Loop, repeat, continue Going through winter, spring and summer.
The key to this technique of predicting and using cycle weather is determining the cycle duration. The weather ranges from 40-70 days per year, but once entered you can predict the weather around the end of the “LRC year” or early October. This means that while it is a great tool, its limitation is that by October 2023 we will start setting new “LRC years”, so there is no way to predict when hurricane season will end this Early.
final thoughts
First, going into any hurricane season, we need to be prepared. Please take a moment now to make sure your family has a plan and hurricane kit ready to go should a tropical system threaten our local area.
One issue that often arises is the location outside of the hot spot in question. Tropical activity/landfalls are still possible in these areas this season, but the likelihood is closer to average or even below average. An example based on the pattern we identified is the Texas coast – the likelihood of landfall for the season is average or below average. In contrast, the Gulf Coast/West Coast of Florida is in the hot spot. Tropical systems along this length of the Florida coast have a higher-than-average chance of making landfall during the 2024 hurricane season.
To me, these weather patterns represent the disturbances most likely to produce tropical activity. It is important to remember that they are no The only feature that could have produced the tropical system that year. To add, the new 2024-2025 cycle will be determined in October, so the situation in October and November will be very different.
All in all, if you have questions about the 2024 hurricane season forecast or anything you read here, please feel free to contact me via email eburris@hearst.com
You can follow me on social media for weather updates…Twitter here and Facebook here.
Eric Burris
WESH 2 First Warning Meteorologist
related information:
WESH 2 Hurricane Survival Guide
