from climaterealism
Author: Linny Luken
A recent article in ForbesTitled “The Impact of Climate Change on Global Agriculture: A Looming Crisis,” it states that climate change is “wreaking havoc” on cocoa, olive oil, rice and soybeans. This is wrong. Some areas, such as the one focused on by author Monica Saunders, have had bad seasons for these crops, but this is not indicative of long-term trends in those areas or globally. So this cannot be attributed to the mild warming seen over the past few hundred years, and certainly not to human CO2 emissions.
Saunders claimed that important crops “such as cocoa, olive oil, rice and soybeans are particularly vulnerable and climate-induced stressors are reducing their yields with far-reaching consequences.”
Starting with Coco, Sanders focused on West Africa, which she said was “hardly hit by dry weather conditions exacerbated by El Niño,” citing a climate scientist from Ghana who claimed that the frequency and intensity of droughts were increasing, This makes “cocoa farming increasingly unsustainable.”
Agricultural data from the region suggests this statement is false.
Cocoa production is down this year and in 2023, but this is an outlier compared to the overall trend. If climate change makes cocoa production “unsustainable”, no one would expect record production in 2022.
- West African cocoa production increased by 167%;
- West African cocoa production fluctuated, but overall grew by 8%. (See below)
climate realism The warnings about cocoa beans and climate change are explored in more depth here , here and here .
Next, we see a similar story regarding olive oil, and, climate realism These claims have been debunked here , here , and here . FAO data discussed in these posts show that between 1990 and 2022, olive production records were set 11 times.
Rice is a particularly puzzling and alarming crop. It is “threatened by climate change,” Sanders wrote, citing Italy and India, which produce half of the EU's rice.
Italy is an interesting example, with rice production and yields declining significantly since at least 2020, with its last yield record in 2017 and production record in 2012. Although according to FAO data, the 2020 production is within the range of a normal Italian rice season. In 2022, production dropped significantly due to drought that year. (See below)
There is no reason to believe that the current drought is permanent, there is no long-term trend of increasing drought in Italy, and there is no continued decline in Italian rice production as the planet warms modestly. Instead, Italian rice farmers are experiencing what farmers around the world have been experiencing: seasonal crop losses and failures directly linked to short-term weather fluctuations. This is a temporary phenomenon, albeit painful for farmers.
Equally important, Sanders did not acknowledge that part of the reason for the decline in rice production had nothing to do with the weather, but instead reflected a nearly 12% reduction in the amount of land used to grow rice over the past 14 years.
Sanders' claim that India's rice is also threatened is ridiculous. India's rice production has broken records almost every year since 2015, and has done nothing but trend upward overall since the 1990s.
Since 1990, Indian rice:
- Production increased by 75%;
- Production increased by 61%. (See below)
Soybean yields and yields have similarly increased in the United States and South America during the past three decades of climate change, with no signs of stopping. climate realism U.S. soybean production is discussed here, while in South America, FAO data shows that the most recent all-time soybean production record was set in 2021 and the most recent yield record was set in 2017. Both have increased as climate alarmists claim these three decades have been the warmest on record.
Since 1990, South American yields have increased by 47% and production has increased by an incredible 424%. (See below)
Each section of the Forbes article also gives examples of weather adaptation strategies that farmers can adopt regardless of whether climate change affects the weather. Regardless, overall crop production is increasing across the board, but there are no clear climate signals.
It only takes a few minutes to verify these facts using public repositories, which should be the bare minimum for good journalism, but apparently it's too important for Forbes to drive the narrative of the climate change crisis for facts to get in the way.
