Three times. 22 Go. That is, to be named an Atlantic tropical storm.
That’s according to Colorado State University (CSU), a traditional hurricane seasonal forecaster that has spent the past several decades predicting collective joy or misery with reasonable accuracy.
Earlier this week, Colorado State University updated its forecast for the 2024 season, increasing the number of storms by two to 25, the number of hurricanes by one to 12, and the number of hurricanes by one. If it's any consolation, the three storms we've had so far – Alberto, Beryl and Chris – should be part of the 25-storm set.
NOAA is also calling for an extremely active hurricane season, with up to 25 tropical storms and 13 hurricanes, seven of which will be major Category 3, 4 or 5 systems. They expect to update next month on the remainder of the season.
If you're not shocked by these predictions, let me share (or re-share) Penn State's predictions.
Climate scientist Michael Mann and his team in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences are calling for 33 storms to be named this season. That means there are 30 more to come! Just for fun (actually, it's for scientific reasons), there's plus or minus six in this prediction. This means that if the number of storms in the Atlantic increases significantly, the number of storms could reach 39 in a year. How are their apples? Enough apples to make you sick, and history to be made.
We have already witnessed history in the Atlantic Basin this year.
Catastrophic Cyclone Beryl accomplished a variety of unprecedented feats. As the most eastern and most powerful hurricane ever recorded early in the season, it brought death and destruction to the Caribbean, Mexico, Texas and beyond. What does the rest of the season bring?
People living in Jamaica are picking up the pieces after Hurricane Beryl wreaked havoc in the country. NBC6 host Chetney Amhara talks with residents affected by the monster storm.
A message released later this week was interpreted by some as hopeful. La Niña was thought to be possible during peak hurricane season, but has been developing slowly in recent weeks. In other words, the rate of cooling in the equatorial Pacific has slowed.
Since La Niña creates conditions conducive to the formation of Atlantic hurricanes, any bumps in their path are good news. La Niña may not arrive until September or October, rather than next month at the start of the stormiest period of the year. But those months are also part of the high season. Additionally, historically, the number of hurricanes making landfall in the United States has been higher in both La Niña and the neutral state between El Niño and El Niño.
The Atlantic Ocean is currently on pause, thanks in large part to the Saharan dust that has blanketed the basin, including Florida, over the past few days. But the season is long and the busiest months are yet to come. These pauses give us a chance to breathe, check our supplies, examine the vulnerabilities of our homes, and make plans.
