Taken from Bank of England report
Terry Ettam
Something very big is happening in the world, but we don't seem to notice at all. We become so focused on the simple, sensational things that we fail to notice the storm clouds.
Now, to be clear, it is the ballistic winging of a senior American politician that deserves our most attention, especially when the circumstances and outcomes are, frankly, not only near-apocalyptic but bizarre. The situation is so bizarre and contrary to what we expect after watching a thousand shows on the same topic (half the audience saw the gunman wandering around, betraying him to the police, who did nothing? The Secret Service left the roof Left unattended because its nearly flat structure is too dangerous for a SWAT team? Wait?
We're no longer in the age of Zapruder films, where a single grainy video captured everything we know about the JFK assassination. Trump's shooting has been so well documented from every angle that our acoustic engineers have done an impressively detailed analysis of the shooting's origins on social media, as well as based on some esoteric analysis elsewhere. Impressive counter-arguments. So we analyze them all.
Sunlight is truly the best disinfectant, so these points are valuable and will deter bad actors from hiding anything. Yet I can’t help but marvel at the structural shifts taking place in the world, which have gone largely unnoticed or ignored in the West, and which are reordering the global geopolitical landscape for the coming decades in significant ways, as far as Like we didn't even notice.
The biggest and quietest movement has to be the rise of the BRICS, an alliance of nine countries that aims to “counter Western influence” and work to chart a new direction. The founding nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—joined new members earlier this year, including Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia (who have been vague about explicitly acknowledging membership, but have been Think it's the member I checked last time). These countries are not a string of uninhabited tropical islands; Their total population is approximately 3.5 billion and their annual GDP exceeds US$28 trillion.
The BRICS grouping is growing rapidly; earlier this year, 34 more countries were reported to have expressed interest in joining, with many applications coming from Africa, South America and Asia. It’s not hard to imagine Russia’s satellite states doing the same.
The reason the rise of this group is so important is that the West has embarked on an economic/socioeconomic path that relies on at least some BRICS members/applicants (Saudi Arabia, multiple African countries with critical minerals countries, especially China, which controls the BRICS). Occidental is envisioning an energy transition over the coming decades that, to put it mildly, will be heavily reliant on the group's output and capabilities.
Two big problems arise here. Europe is an example, which has managed to reduce emissions largely by deindustrializing and outsourcing all the dirty stuff to developing countries (and then getting upset about their emissions).
Another fact is that the West would be apoplectic seeing this group of people frolicking in the sun without putting the West's wishes first. For example, Western countries have tried to weaken Russia's economy by imposing harsh (and in my opinion justified) sanctions over Russia's attacks on Ukraine. The sanctions include a price cap on Russian oil, a strategy derided by seasoned oil market analysts as having no hope of working, but nonetheless intended to show that the world is serious and united.
But a few weeks ago, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the devil himself, Vladimir Putin, on Russian soil and received a big hug (a hug that was reciprocated; otherwise Putin's humiliation would have been unbearable). “Why does Modi want to curry favor with Putin? Simple and cynical: China and oil.” The British “Guardian” scoffed through the nostrils of socialism and imperialism. The “Guardian” article is full of sarcasm, rustic flavor, and exudes the arrogance of those who have been involved in the past who refuse to admit “the past”: “Modi knows very well how to opportunistically turn other people's wars into his own advantage.” (This kind of Grandiose nonsense is not uncommon; in 2023, Economist editor-in-chief Manny Zinton Beddoes published an Economist article explaining “Why the Middle East still matters to the world.” Note the complexity underlying that comment Arrogant, this is or was a legitimate question as to whether the Middle East matters, and as a dumb reader you need some pedigree to explain to you “why”.
But anyway, take a step back and consider the concerns of the West versus the concerns of the rest of the world. We focus on the minutiae of pure rubbish like Taylor Swift’s love life or George Clooney’s open letter about Joe Biden Sr. like it’s worth doing; the BRICS are quietly rearranging furniture and changing door locks. We're asking the world to shift to “green initiatives” like electric vehicles, and then shutting the door on Chinese electric vehicles, which will make them more affordable for North Americans and accelerate the transition.
I will not gloss over any of Putin’s serious violations, nor comment on China’s strategic moves that may not be in line with Western ideals. They do what they do internally and there's nothing we can do about it. The point is, all of this is happening but we pretend it's not happening because we don't like the players or the game.
Nowhere is this more evident than in energy. Five years ago, those of us in the hydrocarbons field had to listen to ignorant, sensationalistic blowhards without a shred of energy knowledge explain that hydrocarbons were a thing of the last century and that natural gas had no need or role in the energy transition. It has no effect and the oil is not necessary. Every one of these stupid claims has been trampled into the dust without an iota of introspection or admission of error or recalibration; all we see is a doubling down of the same stupid ideas in the first round of wild predictions (think Look; the fanatics are foisting the IEA on the energy transition propaganda powerhouse, forcing them to act like some) some kind of macro support dog as their “scientific” backbone, no wonder when the results are so far from their expectations, They didn't have much to say.
Related to energy is the automotive industry, which is currently facing the most severe disaster. Western automakers are convinced that consumers will switch en masse to electric cars — not hybrids, but EVs — because governments will make them. Many countries, including Canada, have legislated to ban internal combustion engines from existing by the mid-2030s. So, all car companies that produce SUVs, let's continue to transform. 29dk2902lhttps://boereport.com/29dk2902l.html
They all said great and started building electric vehicle manufacturing facilities and battery factories. There are 5 billion here, 10 billion there, and they're up and running, ready to implement the government's zero-emission mandate. Then, within just a few years of being forced to move, there were some unforeseen developments (not really unforeseen, more like “hope to leave”, they should have been obvious…). Consumers are growing cold to the whole idea of electric vehicles and deciding that hybrids are what they really want. Now, big companies like Ford are scrambling to bring more hybrids to market (the smart guys like Toyota didn't buy into the whole idea in the first place and now have a hybrid version of every car).
When it comes to electric vehicles, imagine China using its dominance in batteries and metal processing, its growing engineering prowess, and all the tricks it learned from forced joint ventures with Western companies to start mass-producing affordable, affordable electric vehicles around the world. A well-made electric car. (In 2018, China imported a net $30 billion worth of cars. By 2023, they were exporting a net $80 billion, and that's climbing rapidly. There's been some shift.) Now, Western countries because of these machines may be a threat to domestic market manufacturers Panicked by the impact, they are in a dilemma: consumers are unwilling to switch to electric vehicles largely because of cost. Although Chinese companies have solved the cost problem, Western governments cannot allow them to destroy local industries, so they use huge tariffs to Chinese electric vehicles are excluded from the market. Undeterred, China is returning to the BRICS story and is developing vast markets for its products in developing countries.
3.5 billion BRICS people, plus billions more on the margins, are finding their footing, their strength and their voices, and saying publicly or through trade deals: “We think we can get along on our own, no matter what, thank you.”
The reshaping of the global order should be front page news because it would be a disaster for the golden billion. Ha ha. Get real. Good luck with this story with Dancing Bears. Another example: As mentioned, about ten days ago, Donald Trump was nearly murdered live on national media. Kind of a big deal. Instead, the story was pushed from the front page by the most obvious and anticlimactic story imaginable: an 81-year-old man with severely diminished mental abilities stepping down from the most powerful seat in the world. Gee, who could have foreseen this.
Next week is going to be a damn/funny/embarrassing/wonderful (well, brilliant)/ridiculous video clip of Kamala or Donald or some grandstanding political boob and we'll watch it 5000 Thousands of times and argue about it like our lives depend on it. Against this backdrop, China will quietly sign multi-billion dollar development deals with developing countries; Russia, Iran, India and many others will continue to reinforce Western pretense Pipelines for cooperation that don’t exist (we do see this: “Russia and China are increasing cooperation in the Arctic, Pentagon says” Reuters reports that the U.S., Canada, Norway hope to sign an agreement by the end of the year to establish cooperation in the next year or two Construction of new icebreakers will begin at some point (at regulatory speeds these things work), and Frog will figure out there's too little water at some point and the North Korean Flat Top will be a must-see at Gangnam Style next year. .
What the world desperately needs—energy transparency. There were also a few laughs. Learn about the end of fossil fuel madness,allowable Amazon Canada, indigo.caor amazon.com.
Read more of Terry Etam's insightful analysis here, or send Terry an email here.
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