FOX Weather is your hurricane headquarters. (Forth Weather)
Between the Caribbean islands and Africa lies an unassuming patch of moisture, the first ingredient in a potential system. I call it Tropical Disturbance #1. Behind it, there is a second element, a rather powerful system that left Africa a few days ago. I call it “Tropical Disturbance #2.” Both are covered by giant Saharan dust.
Dust will keep development to a minimum over the next few days. But after that, things get complicated.
Disturbance #1 moves slower than Disturbance #2. If the computer predictions are correct, the two systems will merge with Disturbance #2 moving north, in a sense rotating above Disturbance #1. The minimum humidity between them is enough to create a wet area over or near the northeastern Caribbean islands around Wednesday or Thursday. This moisture is sufficient for the system to develop.
potential tropical development (National Health Commission/NOAA)
At that point, there are many possibilities. If the system involved the mountains of Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic, it wouldn't be able to organize much. But if an organized low pressure forms over the Caribbean Sea or very warm Atlantic waters north of the islands, the storm could spin. Assuming that the upper atmospheric pattern is resistant to dry air, it appears to be at least somewhat conducive to the organization of the circulation.
The National Hurricane Center believes there is a low chance that this combined system will develop into at least a tropical depression next week. When so many things have to fall into place to develop a cycle, systems that haven't even begun to come together are always considered to have very low odds. Keep in mind that NHC’s Yellow Potential Development Zones are not cones in the classic sense. Forecasters say if a tropical depression or storm forms within the next seven days, it's likely to appear somewhere in the region.
Tropical Atlantic Overview (National Health Commission/NOAA)
If the seeds are not sown properly, they will not grow into towering trees. In this case, the seeds haven't even come together yet.
If a system does form midweek, there's a range of possibilities, from a cloud of moisture to a potential threat. Possible paths include a trail from eastern Florida to the Gulf of Mexico and ending on a mountainous island.
Obviously, there are many steps to be aware of when using this system.
Nothing will happen immediately, maybe not at all. stay tuned.
