- Spring expected to remain warmer than normal across northern U.S.
- This is especially true from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England.
- Spring should generally be close to average in the South, except for the southern Plains.
- This could lead to a hot summer for much of the country.
Much of the United States, especially in the North, will experience a warmer-than-normal spring, followed by what could be one of the hottest summers on record in the United States.
That's according to the latest outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
One of the biggest factors affecting the outlook is the continued weakening of El Niño and the increased likelihood of La Niña conditions by summer. The long-term warming of the Earth over the past few decades also plays a role.
That said, the remaining months of spring may not be as abnormal as the record-breaking winter, relatively speaking.
“April and May are likely to be only moderately unusually warm, which is noteworthy in a new world of accelerating global warming,” said Todd Crawford, vice president of meteorology at Atmosphere G2.
monthly outlook
April will be warmer than usual for most people: The month will likely start off cooler than average, especially in the South. But overall, with the exception of South Florida, temperatures in April should be warmer than normal across much of the United States. The best areas for above-average temperatures in April appear to be from the northern Great Lakes to upstate New York and northern New England.
(MORE: Further enhance your forecasts with our detailed hourly breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our website Premium professional experience.)
More of the same in May: Our outlook for May appears to be similar to April, except for warmer temperatures in northern areas from Washington State to the Northeast. Like April, the weather is still looking warmer than normal from much of Texas to parts of the desert Southwest.
June’s popularity expands: Above-average temperatures are expected for the first month of summer from the Southern Plains to the Midwest and Northeast. A warmer-than-normal June is most likely from the northern Great Lakes to northern New England, as well as western Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Summer preview looks hot: According to Atmospheric G2, June may just be the beginning of one of the hottest summers in the country. This is based on long-term forecast models, the strong shift from El Niño to La Niña over the past few years, and climate change.
“We expect the most unusual summer high temperatures to extend from the southern Rockies into the Great Lakes and Northeast,” Crawford wrote in the outlook.
Crawford said the situation could peak in August.
“The idea that August will be the warmest month of summer relative to March also matches climate model output and the like, which adds some confidence to the idea of a backload in the summer.”
Our first full summer outlook will be released in mid-April.
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