U.S. Winter Outlook: Wetter in the South, Warmer in the North

This year, El Niño is heading into winter for the first time in four years, driving above-average temperature prospects across the northern half of the continental United States, according to the U.S. Winter Outlook released today by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). department.

“These outlooks provide important guidance for the upcoming season for many industries and sectors of our economy, from energy producers to commodity markets, from agricultural interests to tourism,” said NOAA Chief Scientist Dr. Sarah Kapnick. In a record year with El Niño conditions strengthening and the potential for more extreme climate events, we are lucky to have scientists like those at the Climate Prediction Center helping to build a climate forecast by providing critical seasonal climate predictions. Good weather and climate prepared country.

From December through February, NOAA forecasts above-average weather conditions in northern Alaska, parts of the West, the Southern Plains, the Southeast, the Gulf Coast, and the lower and mid-Atlantic, and above-average weather conditions in the northern United States level.

“The enhanced southern jet stream and associated moisture that often occurs during strong El Niño events creates a high likelihood of above-average precipitation this winter along the Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, and southeastern states,” the Climate Prediction Center said.

NOAA forecasters, working with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor persistent extreme drought conditions in the southern and central United States and worsening drought conditions in Hawaii.

“According to the October 17 U.S. Drought Monitor, one-third of the country, including Puerto Rico, is in drought,” said Brad Pugh, director of drought operations at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. “Heavy rainfall in late October may lead to an improvement in the El Niño drought in the central United States, and increased rainfall is expected to alleviate drought in the southern United States in the coming months.”

temperature

• Temperatures were above average across much of the northern United States and the Far West.
  • The greatest chances for above-average temperatures are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.
• Areas from the south-central Rockies to the southern Plains are most likely to see near-normal seasonal average temperatures.
• The remaining areas fall into the equal-opportunity category of below, near, or above average seasonal mean temperatures.

precipitation

• Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely to occur in northern Alaska, parts of the West from parts of California to the central and southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, the Gulf Coast, the Southeast, and the mid- and lower-Atlantic.
• Drier than average conditions are expected to be most likely in parts of the northern Rockies and central Great Lakes regions, particularly Michigan, Ohio and northern Indiana.
• Much of the central United States is an area with an equal chance of seasonal precipitation totals being below, near, or above average.

drought

• Widespread extreme to abnormal drought continues across much of the southern and central United States
• Drought conditions are expected to improve in the Southeast, Gulf Coast (including the lower Mississippi Valley), and Texas as above-average rainfall is expected.
• Drought conditions are expected to persist this winter in the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains and parts of the desert Southwest.
• Given drier than average conditions, drought conditions are possible in the interior Pacific Northwest.
• Drought may persist or develop across Hawaii.

About NOAA’s Seasonal Outlook

NOAA's seasonal outlook provides the likelihood of temperatures and precipitation totals being above, near, or below average, as well as how drought conditions are expected to change in the coming months. The outlook does not forecast seasonal snowfall amounts because snowfall forecasts typically cannot be forecast more than a week in advance.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center updates its three-month outlook every month. The next update will be released on November 16th.

Seasonal outlooks help communities prepare for what may happen in the coming months and minimize the impact of weather on lives and livelihoods. Resources like drought.gov and climate.gov provide comprehensive tools to better understand and plan for climate-driven hazards. Providing people with actionable forecasts, seasonal predictions and winter weather safety tips is key to NOAA's efforts to create a nation more resilient to weather and climate.

Winter Forecast Tool: Here's What's New This Year from NOAA

• This winter, NOAA will implement a series of upgrades and improvements. In November, the experimental Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI-P) will become operational. The product will enhance communication with external partners, media and the public by graphically depicting the potential social impact of expected winter disasters within seven days. This is supplemented by a version of the Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), which is based on the National Weather Service's official forecast of the most likely conditions to occur over the next three days.
• NOAA's Weather Forecast and Climate Prediction Center will continue to use Winter Key Messages, which highlight the agency's most important information about upcoming winter weather, including the potential for extreme cold and heavy snow. These can be found on the Weather Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center websites under “Headlines.”
• This winter, NOAA will complete implementation of impact-based warning labels for snow squall warnings. Snow Squall Warnings are issued for short periods of severe snowstorms that can cause whiteout visibility and possible lightning icing on roads. To differentiate between high-impact snow squalls, the National Weather Service will issue impact-based snow squall warnings using the “major” label for events that pose a significant threat to safe travel. Wireless emergency alerts, emergency messages sent by authorized government alert agencies through wireless carriers, will be limited to high-impact snow squall alerts with a “major” snow squall impact label.