The potential for auroral activity occurs as the Sun approaches the peak of its 11-year cycle, in which plasma eruptions occur most frequently. These eruptions, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), originate from sunspot regions that are particularly active near solar maximum activity.
An active sunspot region points toward Earth and began releasing coronal mass ejections over the weekend. According to SpaceWeather.com, some of them merged to form “man-eating coronal mass ejections,” which could produce powerful geomagnetic storms when they reach Earth. Geomagnetic storms are responsible for auroras.
How strong is this geomagnetic storm?
Geomagnetic storms are rated on a scale of G (G stands for geomagnetic) 1 to 5, with level 5 being the strongest. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is forecasting weather conditions from G1 to G3 early Wednesday.
G3 storms often produce auroras as far south as the northern half of the United States. Such storms can also have minor impacts on power systems and disrupt satellite and low-frequency radio navigation.
Due to the potential arrival of large quantities of CME, G1-G3 watches will be discontinued from July 29th to 31st. Solar activity has increased over the weekend, and the sun has been erupting with solar flares, including the X1 flare (R3-Strong) on Sunday night. Please visit https://t.co/9VAtkQeOwM… for the full story. pic.twitter.com/3VNJJ9CRgM
— NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (@NWSSWPC) July 29, 2024
In May, a G5 storm hit the Earth, producing auroras as far south as the tropics. According to many, it is the most extensive exhibition in at least twenty years.
Where are the Northern Lights most likely to appear?
High latitudes such as Alaska, Canada, and Northern Europe offer the best opportunities to see auroras on Monday and Tuesday nights.
Lights may extend south into mid-latitudes late Monday and Tuesday morning when the geomagnetic storm is likely to be strongest.
If the storm plays out as expected, the Midwest, New England and Pacific Northwest could see lights. Even further south, including parts of California, the Southern Plains, and the mid-Atlantic, faint lights can be seen on the horizon, especially with the help of long-exposure photography.
However, due to the difficulty of predicting the arrival of a coronal mass ejection, Timing of strongest storm activity may change.
To track the intensity of geomagnetic storm activity, consider monitoring the K-index. If the index reaches 7 or higher, auroras are most likely to occur in mid-latitudes.
Tonight (7/29-7/30) aurora forecast requires KP7/G3 conditions!
Pending favorable data, auroras may appear over New England and the Midwest, and on the horizon as far south as North Carolina and Oklahoma. pic.twitter.com/5rvix7O5B3
— Peter Forrester 🍁🍂🍁 (@forecaster25) July 29, 2024
The best places to see it are with clear skies and away from city lights. Clouds are most likely to interfere with viewing over the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday nights. However, even if clouds are in the forecast, it's worth getting outside and taking a look, as the cloud caps can sometimes show unexpected breaks.
Because the Moon is in its final quarter phase, it will be significantly less bright than when it was full about 10 days ago.
Geomagnetic storm likely to continue into Wednesday
Chances of seeing the auroras may last until after Tuesday night.
There is a chance of more coronal mass ejections this week as a large sunspot region is facing Earth.
Space weather and aurora resource SolarHam.com writes on