WASHINGTON (AP) — Nearly all experts agree this will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, thanks to unprecedented ocean temperatures and a brewing La Niña.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its annual outlook that there is an 85 percent chance that storm activity during the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins in June, will be above average. The weather agency predicts that 17 to 25 named storms will brew this summer and fall, of which 8 to 13 will reach hurricane status (sustained winds of at least 75 mph), and 4 to 7 of them will become major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. miles per hour.
The Atlantic hurricane season produces an average of 14 named storms, of which 7 are hurricanes and 3 are major hurricanes.
“This is going to be an extraordinary season in many ways,” said Rick Spinrad, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. He said it was NOAA's May 25 announcement. The busiest forecast of the year. The agency updates its forecasts every August.
About 20 other groups — universities, other governments, private weather companies — also make seasonal forecasts. All but two expect hurricanes to be busier and more severe in the summer and fall. this The average for other forecasts is about 11 hurricanesan increase of approximately 50% compared to normal years.
“All the ingredients are in place for an active season,” said National Weather Service Administrator Ken Graham. “Certainly, this is cause for concern, but there is no need to panic.”
On Friday, September 1, 2023, two days after Hurricane Idalia, a house in Horseshoe Beach, Florida fell off the block and was partially submerged in a canal. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)
Graham said the biggest concern people should have is water because 90 percent of hurricane deaths occur in water and are preventable.
When meteorologists look at how busy hurricane season is, two factors are most important: Atlantic ocean temperatures as storms spin and require warm water for fuel, and the presence of La Niña or El Niño, natural and periodic cooling or warming changes around the globe. Weather patterns in Pacific waters. La Niña tends to increase storm activity in the Atlantic while suppressing storms in the Pacific, while El Niño does the opposite.
La Niña typically reduces the upper-altitude winds that can destroy hurricanes, and typically during La Niña there is more instability or storms in the atmosphere, which can trigger hurricane development. The storm gets its energy from hot water. Seawater has reached record highs for 13 consecutive months, and La Niña is expected to arrive in mid-to-late summer. current El Niño is weakening It's expected to disappear in about a month.
“There's never been a La Niña in history, and ocean temperatures are so warm, so it's a little ominous,” said Brian McNoldy, a researcher in tropical meteorology at the University of Miami.
Debris from destroyed homes and buildings floats in a canal in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, on August 31, 2023, one day after Hurricane Idalia. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
In May of this year, the ocean heat in the main hurricane area was as high as in mid-August in previous years. “It's crazy,” McNoldy said. Temperatures at both the surface and deep of the ocean hit record highs, which “looked a little scary.”
He said he wouldn't be surprised if storms come earlier than normal this year. Peak hurricane season is usually from mid-August to mid-October, with the official hurricane season starting on June 1 and ending on November 30.
a year ago, These two factors are in opposition to each other. Not a La Niña, but a strong El Niño, which usually dampens the storms a bit. Experts said at the time they were unsure which of those factors would win out.
Warm water wins. There were 20 named storms last year; fourth highest since 1950 Well above the average of 14.
McNoldy said record hot water appears to be the key.
“Things did change last spring (in 2023) and they've never gotten back on track since then,” McNoldy said.
“Hurricanees thrive on warm water,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. “That's basically fuel for hurricanes. But when the Atlantic is warm, it also tends to force more air up over the Atlantic, creating more upward motion, which helps support strong thunderstorms.
Spinrad said record-high ocean temperatures are bad news overall, not just for hurricanes but also for shipping, important ocean currents, coral reefs and fisheries.
Human-caused climate change is warming water bodies overall, but not that much, McNoldy said. Other factors could include undersea volcanic eruptions in the South Pacific in 2022, releasing millions of tons of water vapor into the air to absorb heat, and reduced sulfur content in ship fuel, he said. The latter means There are fewer particles in the air that reflect sunlight And let the atmosphere cool down a bit.
seven Atlantic hurricane seasons have been more active over the past 10 Than long term normal.
climate change Generally speaking, this makes the strongest hurricanes more intense, making storms heavier and intensifying quickly, McNoldy said.
Graham, the former director of the National Hurricane Center, said people need to be prepared as early as possible as warming oceans make storms intensify faster. The most severe Category 5 hurricanes of all to hit the United States with winds greater than 156 miles per hour were not even strong enough to become hurricanes three days before landfall.
Klotzbach and his team at Colorado State University, a pioneer in hurricane season predictions, gave the U.S. a 62 percent chance of being hit by a major hurricane with winds of at least 111 mph. Under normal circumstances, this probability is 43%. Colorado State University predicts that the Caribbean has a two-thirds chance of being hit by a major hurricane, while the U.S. Gulf Coast has a 42% chance of being hit by such a storm. The chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. East Coast is 34%.
Klotzbach said he doesn't expect things to change anytime soon to prevent this year's busy season.
“The die is cast,” Klotzbach said.
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