Freddie Vera and Christopher Adams
3 weeks ago
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Colorado State University has released its latest forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with researchers predicting an “extremely active season.”
The forecast predicts 25 named storms and 12 hurricanes, six of which are Category 3 or above.
This is higher than their original forecast on April 6, which initially predicted 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. The new forecast already includes Alberto, Beryl and Chris, who have all been named as the storms of the season so far.
Above-normal sea surface temperatures cause storms to rapidly intensify, and Beryl is the latest example. The storm became the first major hurricane of the season, eventually reaching Category 5 status.
Although the storm was eventually downgraded to a tropical storm, it did reintensify to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall near Matagorda on July 8.
New forecasts from Colorado State University predict a 54% chance of a hurricane within 50 miles of the Texas coast and a 25% chance of a major hurricane near Texas. Both numbers are above average.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued a forecast as early as May, predicting that there will be 17-25 named storms and 8-13 hurricanes, of which 4-7 will reach severe hurricane levels.
La Niña conditions are expected to develop and reduce vertical wind shear, which can be fatal to storm development.
We are still in the beginning stages of hurricane season, with the peak coming on September 10th.
