AccuWeather forecasters say there are two different scenarios for the path of the tropical wave westward across the Atlantic.
Florida residents should prepare for both scenarios.
➤ Track all active storms
According to the latest report from the National Hurricane Center, there is a 60% chance of tropical waves developing near the Greater Antilles and Bahamas over the next seven days. National Hurricane Center forecasters said a tropical depression could form later this week.
AccuWeather meteorologists called the system a “developing tropical storm,” saying it has the potential to become a tropical storm, but not earlier than this weekend or early next week.
If sustained winds reach at least 39 mph, it will become Tropical Storm Debbie, the fourth storm of the Atlantic season.
Storm tracker: Monitor tropical waves moving toward Florida
Where are the tropical waves now?
As of Tuesday afternoon, the tropical wave was located east of the Caribbean Sea near the Greater Antilles and Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“The hurricane hasn't made much progress over the past few days, but it's still moving west,” AccuWeather chief hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said.
➤ Track the tropics:What you should know in one minute
Dry air and wind shear are preventing the system from developing now and over the next few days.
“The story over the next few days will be as it moves towards the islands,” da Silva said.
The tropical wave is expected to reach the north side of Puerto Rico Wednesday night or Thursday before moving toward Hispaniola.
While no progress is expected over the next few days, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may experience rainfall and surf.
Development opportunities increase as tropical wave approaches U.S. Florida
“Between Friday and Sunday, the waves will be closer to the Bahamas and we have to watch there because as the waves get closer to the United States, conditions there will be more favorable for development,” Da Silva said.
“The dry air will subside and there will be a little bit of wind shear, but not much, so conditions will be more favorable for development.”
“Don't expect any progress in the next few days. Due to the dry air, it won't develop into a tropical storm until Friday at the earliest,” da Silva said.
Two scenarios and who will feel the impact of what could become Tropical Storm Debbie
Da Silva said AccuWeather is looking at two different scenarios for tropical waves:
Scenario 1, route north: If the “tropical storm” takes a “further northerly route, staying north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola and not tangling with those islands, then it's like bending into the Bahamas. Any development could It's brought to the Carolinas, or it could remain offshore over the weekend.
In that case, it would likely arrive in Florida on Friday or Saturday, either very close to the state or just offshore, da Silva said.
Regardless of development, residents along Florida's east coast should expect rough surf and dangerous rip currents.
“However, if it does develop, you may see winds and heavy rain.
“As it moves north, it may approach the Outer Banks or brush over the Carolinas before heading out to sea early next week,” Da Silva said.
“In this case, I would definitely see it strengthening into a tropical storm, and I can't underestimate a hurricane. Even though the likelihood of a hurricane is pretty low, the water is very warm.”
Scenario 2, south wind route: If the tropical wave takes a more southerly course, very close to or over parts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, this could “keep the tropical wave weaker before entering the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week,” “Da Silva said.
“Once it enters the Gulf, it will likely intensify and move into the west coast of Florida or the Panhandle early next week.”
Da Silva said that as the storm weakens after interacting with the islands, “it may not develop into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico until the weekend or early next week.”
Florida's East Coast, West Coast and Panhandle: Which scenario is most likely to happen?
A northerly track will make the system a concern for East Coast states, including Florida and the Carolinas.
A southerly track is less likely, but would make the system more of a concern along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
“Forecasts are leaning toward it staying in eastern Florida, but the door is still open, so people in the Gulf should still watch carefully,” Da Silva said, emphasizing that a tropical wave could move into the Gulf and impact the west coast of Florida or the Panhandle.
Florida West Coast Impact:Tropical wave has the potential to become a storm, but will it hit Sarasota, Bradenton?
Gulf Coast Impact:Meteorologists warn Gulf Coast residents to pay close attention to developing tropical wave
If it does enter the Gulf, “it will most likely enter the west coast of Florida or the Panhandle.”
Can the system be quickly hardened?
“Rapid intensification is always on the table, but it will certainly become a tropical storm in the Gulf, but as it moves over the islands, the center will be disrupted and it will take time for it to reestablish itself. There may not be time to develop.”
Anyway, here's what to expect in Florida, USA and when
“Regardless of development, wave action is expected to increase, as will the risk of rough seas and rip currents. If you head to the beach, please use caution and be aware of dangerous rip currents.
“Hazardous conditions don't require a named storm,” Da Silva said.
“The storm may be relatively dormant or poorly organized before approaching Florida; Americans should not let down their guard,” AccuWeather forecasters said.
Residents from the northern Caribbean islands to the Bahamas and the U.S. Gulf Coast to Florida and the Carolinas should monitor tropical threats closely.
“By late this weekend into early next week, the storm could turn north along the U.S. Atlantic coast or could stir up waters over the Gulf of Mexico before moving ashore,” AccuWeather said.
When is the peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season?
The busiest period of the Atlantic hurricane season is from mid-August to mid-October, with the peak on September 10.
“In the heart of the season, activity will increase and they will come fast and furious,” da Silva warned.
Above-average number of storms forecast for 2024 hurricane season
AccuWeather predicts an “explosive” hurricane season, with the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a single season.
“The number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct impacts to the United States during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be well above historical averages.
“All indications are that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be very active and potentially explosive,” da Silva said.
