In the New Orleans weather forecast, severe storms are possible on Wednesday, currently level 4 out of 5 (moderate risk), which may bring the threat of tornadoes. Anyone at moderate risk for severe storms can expect scattered severe storms, several of which could produce not only tornadoes but also severe tornadoes with winds in excess of 110 mph. Rate data, showing the potential for strong to severe storms starting in the morning and continuing through the afternoon. This will keep the city and much of the South Shore cloudy and cool ahead of the next wave of storms, posing a serious threat. An atmosphere with higher tornado risk in the morning and afternoon. This is just a prediction. Other data shows the storm will begin moving around midday and throughout the afternoon after the atmosphere warms to nearly 80 degrees, with strong southerly winds fueling the storm's development. The serious factor for most people is likely to be the threat of heavy rain and possible flooding. risk. Locally heavy rain may cause flooding. Please note that the flood risk for northern Mississippi is Level 3 or Moderate. A flood warning has been issued here, including several or our northernmost parishes (North Tangipahoa and Washington) as well as Pearl River County, Mississippi. WEATHER SETTING: A powerful storm system will make landfall in the area on Wednesday, bringing the threat of severe storms. The major factors are heat, humidity, ground and wind structures hundreds to thousands of feet above the ground. If we are able to hold off the rain until the afternoon, high temperatures are expected to reach the 70s and possibly even approach the 80s. That's why a wind warning will be in effect from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. of potential energy. These values are sufficient to support severe storms. Producing “spin” that supports tornado potential. A consistent picture of potential severe weather conditions is emerging on Wednesday. It creates the right timing for the storm to develop and the storm will move into an environment ripe for severe weather parameters. Instead, some of our local high-resolution forecast data (GRAF – Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting Solution) tend to retain rain left over from the previous day/night's storm, which will keep the atmosphere cooler, not conducive to possible severe events weather. This was recently supported by one of our best hourly updated forecasts, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh PC Forecast (HRRR). However, both forecasts show a greater chance of tornadoes as morning rain moves north into richer conditions to support severe weather. This is where I worry most about single supercells and strong tornadoes. Regardless of the details, severe storms with the potential to produce powerful tornadoes are possible on Wednesday, which is why we are issuing WDSU's First Weather Alert Day. Weather Alert Days are issued whenever there is a possibility of severe weather that could cause significant damage, hazards or worse. Here are my thoughts on severe risks for Wednesday (from most likely to least likely).
The New Orleans weather forecast shows the possibility of severe storms on Wednesday, Level 4 of 5 (moderate risk), which may bring the threat of tornadoes.
A tornado warning is in effect for all of southeastern Louisiana until 1 p.m.
Anyone at moderate risk for severe storms can expect scattered severe storms, several of which will produce not only tornadoes but also severe tornadoes with winds in excess of 110 mph.
timing:
Here's our latest high-resolution data showing the potential for strong to severe storms from morning to afternoon.
Note that this forecast begins with rain and showers over New Orleans. This will keep the city and much of the South Shore cloudy and cool ahead of the next wave of storms, posing a serious threat.
A morning round of rain may increase the risk of tornadoes in the atmosphere mid-morning and throughout the afternoon as an effective warm front moves northward.
This is just a prediction. Other data shows the storm will begin moving in around noon and throughout the afternoon after the atmosphere warms to near 80 degrees and strong southerly winds fuel the developing storm.
Downpour:
As data is constantly being updated, the most likely serious factor affecting most of us is probably the threat of heavy rain and possible flooding.
Here's a look at possible rain forecasts for Wednesday.
That's why the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) puts us at a Level 2 out of 4, or slight risk. Locally heavy rain may cause flooding. Please note that the flood risk for northern Mississippi is Level 3 or Moderate. A flood watch has been issued here, including several or our northernmost parishes (North Tangipahoa and Washington) as well as Pearl River County, Mississippi.
Heavy rainfall and possible flooding are likely to have the biggest impact on most of us.
Overall weather settings:
A powerful storm system will make landfall in the region on Wednesday, bringing the threat of severe storms.
For severe storms, proper atmospheric conditions are needed to coordinate. The main factors are heat, humidity, and wind structures at the ground level and hundreds to thousands of feet in the air.
Based on our forecast data, this should already be in place. High temperatures are expected to reach the 70s and possibly even approach the 80s if We can keep you out of the rain until the afternoon.
Strong surface winds may reach 20-30 mph, with higher gusts. Therefore, a wind warning will be in effect from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Humidity will also rise significantly, with dew points reaching the 70s.
Strict settings:
Putting all the above data together, warm air and high humidity provide the potential energy released in thunderstorms. These values are sufficient to support severe storms.
A strong gust of wind tens of thousands of feet in the air can also blow through around noon.
This enhances lift, or the speed at which air rises, while also providing “wind shear,” which creates “spin” in the atmosphere that supports tornado potential.
This combination of wind shear is high enough to give us a tornado threat.
Discussion/Analysis:
Overall, our main computer forecasts ( Gpartial Fore SSystem, or GFS) has been consistently painting a picture of possible severe weather conditions for Wednesday. It creates the right timing for the storm to develop and the storm will move into an environment ripe for severe weather parameters.
In contrast, some of our local high-resolution forecast data (GRAF – GHi overallrightSolution atmosphere FOre solution) tends to retain rainwater left over from the previous day/night's storm, which will keep the atmosphere cooler and less conducive to possible severe weather. This is backed up by one of our best hourly updated forecasts recently Hoops rightsolution rightaphid rightRefresh Computer Forecast, or HRRR. However, both forecasts show a greater chance of tornadoes as morning rain moves north into richer conditions to support severe weather. This is where I worry most about single supercells and strong tornadoes.
Regardless of the details, severe storms with the potential to produce powerful tornadoes are possible on Wednesday, which is why we are issuing WDSU's First Weather Alert Day. Weather warning days will be issued at any time Potential Severe weather that could cause significant damage, hazards, or worse. Here are my thoughts on the serious risks emerging on Wednesday (from most likely to least likely).
Be sure to stay tuned for the latest news on this possible severe weather event as we will update this story with the latest critical information.
