not many people know
Paul Homewood
Met Office launches 'extreme weather' scam again:
Climate change is causing a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme temperatures and the number of temperature records in the UK.
New observational analysis shows that extreme temperatures in the UK are most affected by human-induced climate change. This means the UK is experiencing more frequent hot days on average, creating challenges for infrastructure, health and wellbeing. Observations also show an increase in extreme rainfall.
This year’s annual publicationUK climate status report. The report, published in the Royal Meteorological Society's International Journal of Climatology, is a comprehensive review of UK climate and major weather events to 2023.th Century provides long-term context.
Taking 28°C as an example, the frequency of days reaching this threshold is increasing almost everywhere in the UK. During the average period from 1961 to 1990, only London and Hampshire had six or more days with temperatures above 28°C, and by the latest decade (2014 to 2023) this has spread to England and Wales In most areas of the Southeast, the frequency increases to more than 12 days per year in many counties.
Even though rainfall naturally varies at a much higher rate than temperature, it is still possible to determine that the frequency of the wettest days increases over time. By selecting the top 5% of wettest days on average for the period 1961 to 1990, you can see how often these very wet days have occurred over the last decade (2014 to 2023).
The number of abnormal rainfall days has increased by about 20% in the last decade compared to the average period from 1961 to 1990. While there is no clear signal that this change is more pronounced in specific areas of the UK, overall this analysis clearly shows that there has been an increase in the number of very wet days in the UK climate in recent years, compared to only a few instances where this has been observed decades ago.
Lead author Mike Kendon, a Met Office climate scientist, said: “Our new analysis of these observations really reveals the fastest-changing aspects of weather due to climate change. It can be difficult for people to understand long-term averages, but what we show here are significant changes in the frequency of extreme weather, which can have real consequences for people's lives.
“2023 is another year of interesting and sometimes important weather. But behind this natural variability is the ongoing and increasing impact of climate change, which is affecting the weather we experience.
Professor Liz Bentley, Chief Executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said: “This report is the authoritative annual summary of the UK's climate and is published as a special supplement to our International Journal of Climatology. It not only helps to highlight the latest news on climate change Knowledge, but also enables us to understand trends, risks and impacts to help understand how we need to adapt now and in the future.
“New analysis of days classified as 'hot' or 'unusual rainfall' highlights the increased frequency of high-impact extreme events we are already experiencing in the UK, while attribution studies help understand human activities such as burning fossil fuels As our climate continues to change, these extreme events are more likely to occur.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2024/Temperature-extremes-and-records-most-affected-by- UK climate change
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It’s the same tired old themes every year – more extreme weather, the climate is changing, and it’s all (of course) caused by fossil fuels!
Clearly, pleasant warm weather is more common now than it was in the 1960s, but equally extreme cold weather is becoming less common. So how can they say we are going through a Is the frequency of extreme temperatures increasing rapidly? As I've argued time and time again, London is warmer than Manchester, but does that mean London's weather is more extreme?
If you asked most people if they wanted a slightly warmer climate, they would jump at the opportunity! Therefore, the Met Office needs to sound the banner of “extreme weather” to scare the public into believing that every severe weather event is caused by global warming.
The report itself is 121 pages long and filled with essentially irrelevant nonsense. The purpose is obviously to confuse the public and prevent the public from knowing the true story.
But today I want to focus on rainfall, including this statement from the Met Office:
Even though rainfall naturally varies at a much higher rate than temperature, it is still possible to determine that the frequency of the wettest days increases over time. By selecting the top 5% of wettest days on average for the period 1961 to 1990, you can see how often these very wet days have occurred over the last decade (2014 to 2023).
The number of abnormal rainfall days has increased by about 20% in the last decade compared to the average period from 1961 to 1990. While there is no clear signal that this change is more pronounced in specific areas of the UK, overall this analysis clearly shows that there has been an increase in the number of very wet days in the UK climate in recent years, compared to only a few instances where this has been observed decades ago.
As any statistician will tell you, comparing a 10-year period to a 30-year period is a strict no-no. The Met Office is packed with statisticians, so why do they choose to do this? Why was the period 1961-90 chosen instead of 1991-2020, the only relevant period now?
The answer to the second question is that the 1961-90s were a drier period, especially the 1970s. Since then, average annual rainfall has increased, but only to levels seen in periods such as the 1870s and 1920s. This has nothing to do with “climate change”; in fact, the UK's climate remains as it has always been. But that doesn't mean the weather doesn't vary greatly from year to year, so inevitably some years will be wetter than normal and others drier. The Met Office has provided no evidence that rainfall trends over the past two centuries are not natural variations.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html
Leading flood experts are fully aware of these historical changes. For example, Professor Stuart Lane of Durham University described the 1960s to 1980s as a period of “flood scarcity”.
The Met Office's own charts also give away their secrets. For the 95th and 99th percentiles, they both showed growing trends until the 1990s, but the trends have been flat since then.
So much for the “climate is changing” memes!
But why do these charts only start in 1960? What are they trying to hide?
The Met Office said the intensity of rainfall is increasing across the country and their map clearly shows the situation in Oxfordshire. So what do the Radcliffe Observatory data tell us?
The ECA&D charts below only cover 2020, but both confirm that the period 1961-90 was drier than most of the previous period.
The latest data confirms that the 2014-2023 average used by the Met Office is at a similar level to most of the period before 1960 (95th percentile).
As for the 99th percentile, it's at a historical low. There are no clear long-term trends in either data set.
https://climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi
In short, the Met Office is trying to deceive the public into thinking rainfall is becoming more extreme, when this is not the case.
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