Low-level humidity is high near the surface tonight, and high pressure is expected to move overhead, with the possibility of fog.
There may not be any rain Monday through Tuesday morning, but a few rounds of thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday. Any organized storm group Wednesday night into early Thursday could bring the threat of damaging winds and/or flooding.
Very warm and humid weather is possible Tuesday through Thursday, but the amount of heat potential will depend on storm timing and coverage, which remains uncertain from Monday night's perspective.
weather radar Northeastern Illinois 7:30 PM Sunny weather
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O'Hare predicts…
Monday night: There's a 20% chance of showers before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with low pressure around 68 degrees.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 91 degrees.
Tuesday night: 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy with a low around 73 degrees.
Wednesday: 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny with a high near 90.
Wednesday night: 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low of about 74 degrees.
Thursday: 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89 degrees.
Thursday night: 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with the lowest temperature around 71 degrees.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms possible. Partly sunny, with a high near 83 degrees.
Friday night: Partly cloudy, with the lowest temperature around 70 degrees.
Saturday: The sun is shining brightly and the high temperature is near 86.
Saturday night: Mostly sunny, with a low around 69.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 85.
Sunday night: The weather is mostly sunny, with the lowest temperature around 67.
on Monday: The sun is shining brightly and the high temperature is near 86.
Temps Lake…
Southern Michigan Lake water temperature
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Monday, July 29, 2024 at 1008 AM CDT
Lake Michigan water temperature…
Chicago Shore…………..75.
Chicago Crib…………70.
Chicago Buoy………75.
Wilmette Buoy…………..74.
Walkergan Buoy…………..74.
Winthrop Harbor Buoy…70.
Michigan City…………..67.
Michigan City Buoy…75.
Nanzhong Lake Buoy…..74.
Central Lake Buoy…71.
Beizhong Lake Buoy……69.
&&
july.chicagoweatherstation.com
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Regional Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service
Chicago/Romeoville, IL
Monday, July 29, 2024 701 PM CDT
.
– A few more rounds of thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Friday. Any organized storm group Wednesday night/early Thursday could bring the threat of damaging winds and/or flooding.
– Very warm and humid weather is possible for at least Tuesday through Thursday, but the amount of heat potential will depend on storm timing and coverage, which remains uncertain.
&&
.discuss… Posted on Monday, July 29, 2024 at 310pm CDT
As of Tuesday:
Residual shower activity in northern Lake and Cook counties is driven by mesoscale convective vortices left behind by morning convection. With limited sunshine today and remaining low to mid-level clouds, instabilities along and north of I-80 are closer to larger-scale forcing and therefore suppressed.
High up, we can see on the 3D water vapor ring that the trailing edge of mid-level vorticity advection has passed through northeastern Illinois, and that there is some drying in the lower and mid-levels, which will limit deeper convection. At the surface, there is a subtle boundary around I-55, with winds shifting to the west and lower upstream dewpoints, but ahead of it, an uncapped but unstable air mass exists. We expect at least some scattered convection as the front advances. Effective shear will be limited to around 25 knots, so widespread organized thunderstorms are unlikely, but with lower humidity and some dryness aloft, the elevated DCAPE axis will spread into the I-55 South/East area, possibly Facilitating the formation of some cells able to withstand gusty winds. The window of time before the main forcing force is cut off is 6 to 7 pm. PWAT values will converge (moisture convergence) along this corridor extending south from the lake. The storm will produce heavy rain as PWAT reaches 1.9 inches, but 30 mph storm motion should limit training.
There will be some moisture at low levels tonight, mainly near the surface, and fog may develop as high pressure moves overhead. However, the rainfall footprint this afternoon was not widespread, so the guidance did not impact it too much. The best chance is outside the subway.
The front will be pushed further north on Tuesday as the low-level jet stream once again strengthens across the Plains against fast-moving shortwave activity in the upper Midwest. The morning will start warm and humid, with most of the forcing concentrated in the west. Clouds will also be thin enough to prevent temperatures from rising into the 80s, and dew points will soar into the 70s in most areas. Heat indexes will reach 100, especially in the southern/western Corn Belt areas. Attention will turn to a series of waves that move across the ridge Tuesday and Tuesday night and then move southeast toward the area. Guidance for the eastern extent of the impact of the first wave on Tuesday afternoon was mixed, thus keeping the PoP at its highest levels along the highest instability axis and to the southwest. More long-term discussions about the serious threats posed by these waves.
— KMD/NWS Chicago
Tuesday night through Monday:
By Thursday morning, our region will maintain a northwest mid- to upper-level flow pattern on the northern periphery of a strong ridge, from the southern plains to the deep south. A large MUCAPE reservoir will remain in place, and additional thunderstorm swarms may develop across the region as (convectively modulated) pulses interact with the unstable reservoir.
Assuming that Tuesday's daytime cluster is indeed primarily located in the southwest CWA, the next potential “window” of activity appears to be Tuesday night into early Wednesday. A stronger, slower, northerly MCV induced convection over northern Illinois on Tuesday night and then moved southeastward, which largely discounted model solutions (e.g., 12z GFS). Overall quiet conditions are currently expected to continue into the evening to midday.
Additional low-amplitude pulses combined with enhanced warm air advection (WAA), low-level moisture advection, and associated isentropic ascent appear to be the driving force behind a potential increase in convective coverage Tuesday evening. Most (but not all) 12z HREF CAMs (Convection Allowed Models) focus on this. Interestingly, several model descriptions have emerged recently, including 12z ECMWF and NSSL-WRF-ARW, which were developed overnight but are clearly located in the southwest.
Taking into account the guidance variability and inherent uncertainty of these models, the likelihood of a PoP emerging overnight is shown to be high (around 50%). If convection does occur, effective volume shear of 30-40 kt and high PWAT air masses will result in damaging wind gusts and the threat of flash flooding. Scenarios look ripe for training and/or reconstructing storms in parts of the region, which will up the ante for flash flood threats. Due to the different ranges of plausible outcomes, there is medium to low confidence in occurrence in the CWA and low in the locations in question.
Conceptually, organized convection on Wednesday morning may reduce the potential for additional storms during the remainder of the day, so the likelihood of a PoP in the afternoon is low (~30%). Coverage, or lack thereof, in the morning, along with effective boundary placement, is expected to regulate heat and humidity into the equation Wednesday afternoon. Right now, our forecast for temperatures is roughly in the middle, with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s, dew points in the low 90s to low 100s, and a peak heat index in the 70s. Heat advisories may be required for some counties, but confidence remains low.
A more consistent shortwave tracking signal emerged in the area Wednesday night into early Thursday. This could produce strong to severe MCS in the region, with flash flooding threats associated with training and/or post-building convection. However, it is too early to confirm further specific details. Similar to Wednesday, the extent of Thursday afternoon convection following overnight/early morning activity is fairly unclear (30-40% PoP). Temperatures and peak heat index are also expected to be similar to or slightly lower than Wednesday.
The guiding trend is for closed mid-to-upper lows across the region Thursday night into Friday afternoon, which could be a bit of a chaotic period with additional showers and scattered storms. Friday will be cooler (highs dropping into the mid-80s) but still humid, with overland flow developing north of the surface low reflectance. After this feature moves out of the Southeast on Friday night, this should set up a largely quieter weekend with a slight break in humidity and warm but probably not hot temperatures (coolest along the coast due to onshore winds).
— Castro/New Weather Service
