from climaterealism
An article published on the CNBC website on July 29 claimed in this headline: “Home insurance premiums rose 21% last year. Experts say climate change is part of the reason. The article goes on to say, “Experts say an increase in severe weather is largely to blame for the increase, but it’s hard to say how insurers are incorporating climate risk into policy costs.”
This is wrong; multiple data and studies show that severe weather has been decreasing over the past few decades, despite a slightly warmer climate.
The basis for the claim in the article is as follows:
Home insurance prices will increase by an average of 21% at renewal between May 2022 and May 2023, according to Policygenius.
Experts say an increase in catastrophic severe weather events is driving up prices, and they don't expect the pace to slow down. As insurance companies face higher costs, they pass these costs on to consumers in the form of higher premiums.
The first mistake they made was that a year doesn't show the effects of climate change. Climate operates on much longer time scales, spanning decades, while weather operates on shorter time scales, ranging from days to a year. What we experience every day are weather events, not climate events. As has been said many times, weather is not climate. If there is indeed less severe weather in the same year, it has nothing to do with climate change. However, this was a choice made to support the claims made in the article.
The article itself contradicts the claim in the title of this paragraph,
Although home insurance premium prices have increased significantly over the past year, this is not a new phenomenon. According to the Insurance Information Institute, the average premium rose from $1,034 to $1,411 between 2012 and 2021.
Obviously, premium increases aren't just about the weather during the year.
The title quoted so-called experts as saying that “climate change is part of the reason.” Sadly, none of the people mentioned in the article have any climate expertise.
Compared to climate change, the data on severe weather are very clear. Many real-world data show no increase in droughts or heat waves; no increase in floods; no increase in tropical cyclones and hurricanes; no increase in winter storms; and no increase in thunderstorms or tornadoes or associated high winds from hail, lightning and thunderstorms.
Additionally, research published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows that the link between severe weather and climate change is not yet known. As can be seen from Table 12.12, Chapter 12, Chapter 12, Page 90, Emergence of Climate Impact Drivers (CID) of the United Nations IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, there is no evidence of any increase or decrease in frequency, severity, or extent globally or by region; Frost , average precipitation, river flooding, intense precipitation and floods, landslides, droughts, hydrological droughts, agricultural or ecological droughts, fire weather or wildfires, average wind speeds, severe storms or tornadoes, tropical cyclones or hurricanes, sandstorms, snow or ice sheets , heavy snow and ice storms, hail, avalanches, relative sea levels, coastal flooding, coastal erosion, marine heat waves, ocean acidity, air pollution weather or radiation from the Earth's surface.
The most compelling evidence comes from insurance losses related to severe weather. Clearly, as the Earth has warmed modestly over the past few decades, property damage trends have declined.
Since climate change is not causing an increase in extreme weather, it is unlikely to cause insurance premiums to increase; the data simply does not support this premise. There must be other factors at play. For example, this article from the National Association of Realtors shows that while the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. has declined over the past decade, insurance rate increases have increased in the two states hardest hit by hurricanes—Florida and Louisiana. maximum.
A likely factor is the increase in coastal populations. People like to live by the sea. The population of coastal counties in the United States has been growing, increasing by 40.5 million people, or about 46%, from 1970 to 2020. By the 2020s, the population is expected to increase by more than 10 million people, or more than 8%.
Although there are no trends in coastal storms, risks to life and property increase as populations along coastlines increase. Insurance growth appears to be driven primarily by demographic changes rather than climate.
There is no evidence that climate change is exacerbating the extreme weather events affecting the country. It was irresponsible of CNBC to publish this article as it contained many inaccurate and misleading claims. But these days this seems to be “natural” in the media.
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow in environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Since 1978, Watts has been in the weather business both in front of and behind the camera as a live television meteorologist and currently oversees daily broadcast forecasts. He created television weather graphics presentation systems, professional weather instruments, and co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He runs the world's most viewed climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.
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