A recent article published by Rigzone, “How dangerous will extreme weather be for oil and gas companies in 2024?” reiterates that extreme weather events such as hurricanes are becoming more severe and therefore pose a significant risk to oil and gas operations, in particular In the Gulf of Mexico. [emphasis, links added]
offshore oil operations [have always been] Threatened by hurricanes and poses a threat every season. Therefore, operators should work on improving weather forecasting techniques and response plans to reduce risks.
This is true regardless of climate change Because hurricanes are not becoming more frequent or severe.
Rigzone’s article primarily consists of interviews with several oilfield “experts,” notably an economist named Frederick J. Lawrence, who first made it clear that extreme weather could be a risk factor for oil and gas and that “be prepared and faster response” In addition to raising standards and resilience, we will always need this capability. “
Later in the article, Lawrence claims, “increasing preparedness for extreme weather events will remain a top priority given that their frequency and intensity appear to be increasing, according to organizations that track weather-related events.”[.]”
Others interviewed, such as Alex Stevens of the Energy Institute, wisely said “Hurricanees continue to pose risks to oil and gas companies due to their potential impact on supply chain logistics, infrastructure and extraction needs.”
“always” is correct, and As Lawrence said, there is no evidence that hurricanes or other extreme weather affecting oil and gas operations are becoming more frequent or intense.
Take hurricanes as an example. Since hurricanes pose the most direct and obvious threat to oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico every year, we can see from the existing historical data: No matter what “organizations that track weather-related events” say, it's not going to get worse.
I suspect these “groups” are being referred to groups like World Weather Attribution, They make a living attributing various weather events to climate change.
Their methods are untrustworthy ways of finding the truth about weather events, Because they first assume that extreme weather events are caused or affected by climate change, and then work backwards to fit their models and determine the extent to which climate change affects them.
We've reported on this bad science multiple times climate realismlike the flooding in Dubai last spring, the wildfires in Canada last year, and other weather events that made the news.
Hurricanes are not getting more severe or frequent, either in the Gulf of Mexico or around the world, as Climate Realists have repeatedly pointed out in the past, such as here , here , and here , and as the data cited in the Climate Overview clearly confirm : Overview of hurricanes and climate: Tropical cyclones worldwide.
Recent global hurricane counts, The diagram below was drawn by Dr. Ryan Maue, Has not shown an increasing trend since the 1980s. If anything, hurricane numbers appear to have declined slightly during this period. (See image below – click to enlarge)
Measurements of the total energy of hurricanes and tropical storms also show no increasing trend since the 1970s. The annual changes are significant, but the overall trend is not obvious. (See image below – click to enlarge)
Hurricanes that threaten oil and gas operations are becoming more frequent or extreme and are not really hurricanes at all.
Similarly, extremely hotanother weather condition that could threaten oilfield work, especially in hot and arid regions like the southwestern United States, It didn't get any more intense, As discussed in Climate Overview: U.S. Heat Waves .
Nor is the potential for extreme cold, which is more dangerous to life, any greater.
That’s not to say it’s not a good idea to continue to improve the weather resilience of oil fields and invest in better weather forecasting and storm tracking technology.
But regardless of the trend for severe weather, it's a good idea because if one thing is for sure, it's that extreme weather will final strike will causing operational disruption.
Thankfully, no one in a Rigzone article suggested stopping the use of fossil fuels as a way to prevent extreme weather, but spreading lies about extreme weather trends is unhelpful.
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