Favorable weather conditions for tropical storm formation will occur within the next 48 hours. This will be the fifth storm of the season and will be named Ernesto. With the help of warm ocean temperatures, it could reach hurricane status, but that's not certain yet.
A tropical storm watch has been placed for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the Leeward Islands.arrive, and the Federation of Saint Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla, Montserrat and Guadeloupe. As of 06:00 Monday morning, the potential tropical cyclone was located approximately 1,040 kilometers east/southeast of Antigua.
The area will experience gusty winds and possible flooding and landslides, so residents of the islands should be prepared. As for the Dominican Republic, there is a high probability that it will be excluded from the impact of this phenomenon. For the United States, however, they must be wary of this system's development, even as the National Hurricane Center Cone now bends toward Bermuda.
As already predicted, atmospheric conditions will change starting from the first week of August. In the Caribbean, for example, shear winds have begun to weaken as we face the South Pacific Oscillation (ENSO). This ocean concept consists of two parts: El Niño (EN) and Southern Oscillation (SO). ENSO occurs in the Pacific Ocean and consists of three phases: a cold phase called La Niña, a warm phase called El Niño, and an intermediate or neutral phase. It is currently in a neutral phase, awaiting the arrival of La Nina.
As for the Madden-Julian Oscillation (a low-pressure wave or area that moves around the globe in 30 to 60 days), it has begun to move into a negative phase in the Caribbean Sea, weakening the wind shear that promotes the development of North Atlantic cyclones. develop.
Another very important factor is the reduction of Saharan dust. This reduction allows for an increase in humidity and thus the formation of more clouds. In addition to this, the Azores anticyclone, which controls the track of hurricanes in the region, is expected to reduce its pressure to 1022 MB in the next 48 hours, promoting this phenomenon towards It curves north and touches the Caribbean Sea on its northeastern side.
