An article from August 7 new york times The (new) title is, Hot weather sparks fears Great Barrier Reef 'dead' within a generation Claims that recent increases in ocean temperatures could have catastrophic impacts on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) within 30 years. While there may be some truth to the temperature data, claims about the Great Barrier Reef's demise are false and ignore the temperature history and development of the Great Barrier Reef thousands of years ago.
The article claims:
Australian scientists have released new research on the heat of the surrounding ocean, saying the Great Barrier Reef could be wiped out within a generation unless humans take more urgent action to curb climate change.
The Great Barrier Reef is the world's largest coral reef system and is often called the largest living structure on Earth. The study, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, found that recent extreme temperatures in the Coral Sea have reached levels not seen in at least 400 years, the highest levels their analysis could reach.
It includes models showing what causes these extremes: greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans burning fossil fuels and destroying natural places like forests that store carbon.
The theory that climate change is causing the Great Barrier Reef's demise has been around for decades. Such claims typically involve sea level rise (SLR), rising temperatures, or both. However, the fact is that corals thrive in warm waters, and they can handle a monocular camera effortlessly.
Australia's GBR began to form in the early Holocene 9,000 years ago, and the highest sea level in the Holocene occurred about 5,000 to 6,000 years ago. The Holocene evolution of the Great Barrier Reef has been influenced by multiple factors, including sea level rise, tectonic deformation and accretion rates.
Sea levels then rose rapidly until about 7,000 years ago, when the continental shelf was submerged at a rate of about 6-7 meters per thousand years. Corals caught up with the speed of the single eye, much faster than measured today. Readings from NASA satellite instruments dating back to 1993 show global sea levels are increasing at a Only 1.2 inches per decadeor 120 inches (3 meters per thousand)
Coral evidence suggests ocean temperatures at Heron Reef on the Great Barrier Reef were cooler than they were 5,200 years ago and 7,000 years ago. However, other evidence suggests that a warm period known as the mid-Holocene hottest period occurred between 6,000 and 6,800 years ago, when tropical ocean surface temperatures were about 1°C warmer than today. Figure 1 below shows the temperatures then compared to today.
As discussed in Climate at a Glance—Coral ReefsCorals have persisted for the past 60 million years, thriving and expanding their ranges at temperatures and carbon dioxide levels significantly higher than any levels reasonably expected on Earth today or in the future. The main causes of coral bleaching events vary greatly depending on time and location and include sediment and chemical contamination of nearby coastal lands, chemicals in sunscreen (oxybenzone), fertilizer and nitrogen loads from agriculture, and cold events . The argument that corals are being decimated by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is readily supported by available data.
Apparently, the corals of the Great Barrier Reef survived temperatures and sea level conditions far higher than those experienced today. The study cited in the New York Times article used computer models to predict the future of the Great Barrier Reef but completely ignored past temperature and sea level history.
But the final rebuttal to claims of Britain's demise comes from the latest figures. As pointed out here climate realism Just a month ago, despite what the media kept telling you, the UK was at its highest growth level ever, as shown in Figure 2 below.
To be clear, the Great Barrier Reef has been much cooler in recent decades than it is today when ocean temperatures were cooler, and has expanded significantly following bleaching events.
Concerns about the demise of the Great Barrier Reef do not reflect actual data, the history of the Great Barrier Reef and current experience on the reef. The threat exists only in the models, in the minds of researchers, and in the minds of so-called journalists who push the idea. There is no evidence that climate change is worsening the health of the Great Barrier Reef. The Great Barrier Reef’s resilience reminds us that nature is more adaptable and powerful than we often imagine. It was irresponsible for the New York Times to publish this article, which is filled with inaccurate and misleading statements. But this seems to be the norm today in the media, which dogmatically pushes a narrative of climate catastrophe, ignoring history, context and data.
Originally published in Climaterealism
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