New York Times (The New York Times) recently published a Sunday feature titled “How Close Is Earth’s Climate Tipping Point?”
The article, which makes heavy use of infographics and lacks actual references or facts, discusses several topics regarding features of the Earth that may be “in danger of collapse.” The entire article is nothing more than speculation with pretty graphics and provides no evidence that the Earth is approaching these so-called “tipping points.” The article hedges its bets with some dodgy words, such as, can, may, mayand possible But no reliable predictions were made.
Below is a summary of the New York Times article’s claims, along with predictions of “when it might happen” behind each topic.
For the past two decades, scientists have been warning that nature's vast systems could collapse due to warming caused by carbon emissions. These systems are so large that they maintain a degree of equilibrium even as temperatures rise. But only to a certain point.
Scientists say this balance may disappear once the Earth warms beyond a certain level. The impact will be widespread and difficult to reverse. Not like turning a dial, but flipping a switch. Someone who doesn't flip back easily.
Mass die-off of coral reefs
Over time, coral reefs recover. However, as the world warms, occasional bleaching is turning into regular bleaching. Mild bleaching is turning into severe bleaching. When might it happen: It may already be underway.
Greenland ice collapse and West Antarctic ice breakup
If temperatures rise by 1.5°C, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets are more likely to collapse. When might it happen: Times vary from place to place. The impact on global warming could be cumulative for a century or more. Irreversible melting could begin this century and continue for hundreds or even thousands of years.
Permafrost melts suddenly
When temperatures rise by 1.5°C, localized melting of permafrost may become more likely. When might it happen: Times will vary from place to place. The impact on global warming could be cumulative for a century or more.
Sudden shift in West African monsoon
Monsoons may be disrupted. When might it happen: It's hard to predict.
The disappearance of the Amazon rainforest
By 2050, half of today's Amazon forest may be at risk. When might it happen: It will depend on how quickly people clear or protect the remaining forests.
closure of atlantic currents
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may slow down and change the weather. When might it happen: It's hard to predict.
As you can see for yourself, the New York TimesWhen might it happen. This is not surprising at all, since every prediction of tipping points is based on computerized climate models, which we know are flawed and have a tendency to get too hot. In addition to inherent bias, there is no any scientific basis.
The information below is based on actual data and measurements.
- The reef is in very good condition. Despite media claims of over-hype, such as this issue's prime example, Australia's Great Barrier Reef is actually doing quite well, reaching its greatest ever expansion in 2024. It has been improving steadily.
- this Permafrost melts suddenly It’s a summer phenomenon. While there is some occurrence of this during the winter, this is due to changes in weather patterns rather than changes in climate. The duration of the permafrost record is so short that we don't know if this has happened in the past. The Arctic region has large natural temperature changes. For example, in some areas of Siberia, average January temperatures are below -40 °C (-40 °F). In summer, long days melt the frozen ground and average temperatures exceed 10 °C (50 °F). At some weather stations in inland areas, summer temperatures can reach 30 °C (86 °F) or higher.
- Greenland's ice is melting, but only slightly compared to the ice mass as a whole. It also refreezes every winter.
- The theory that the West Antarctic ice sheet is breaking up due to melting has been around for decades, but it has yet to happen. Again, as with Greenland ice, the amount of melt is minuscule compared to the total amount of ice in Antarctica.
- No changes in the West African monsoon were observed. Science shows that West African summer monsoon rainfall exhibits large variability on interannual and decadal time scales, leading to multi-year droughts and floods.
- The Amazon rainforest is disappearing primarily because of land clearing for agriculture and mining, not climate change. The New York Times article even mentions this, although they still insist that climate change will play a role.
- There is no evidence that the Atlantic currents are shut down like the AMOC. Science shows it's not slowing down at all. In fact, climate science can't actually decide year-by-year whether it's accelerating or decelerating. The last sentence of the New York Times section on Atlantic currents, which says, “When it will happen: Hard to predict.” is accurate, but they still list it as a problem.
All in all, this New York Times article is nothing more than fear-mongering backed by a thin veneer of science. Every “prediction” is so open-ended that they have the same odds as a coin toss. However, based on the physical evidence and data we have so far, none of these tipping points will occur, and even a 50-50 likelihood is unlikely to be indicative of the future. This New York Times article did readers a huge disservice.
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow in environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Since 1978, Watts has been in the weather business both in front of and behind the camera as a live television meteorologist and currently oversees daily broadcast forecasts. He created television weather graphics presentation systems, professional weather instruments, and co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He runs the world's most viewed climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.
Originally published in Climaterealism
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