During the 2023 Republican presidential debates, several candidates expressed shared views about whose climate policies really matter.
“If you want to really change the environment, then we need to start telling China and India that they have to lower their emissions,” said Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and eventual runner-up to Donald Trump. . “We also need to say to the international world, 'OK, India and China, you have to stop polluting.'”
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott agreed, saying, “In places where the population continues to increase, [climate pollution] – Africa, 950 million people; India, more than one billion people; China, more than one billion people.
Indeed, China and India each have a population of over 1.4 billion. Both countries' economies are growing rapidly and rely heavily on fossil fuel energy. China accounts for about a quarter of annual climate-warming pollution, and the two countries, along with India, account for one-third of annual global emissions (the United States accounts for about 11%).
Given the size of the economies of China and India, it’s understandable to wonder whether climate action by smaller countries matters. But they do, for several reasons: because the Chinese and Indian governments are working hard to deploy climate solutions; because China and India cause much lower per capita and historical climate pollution than many other countries; and, crucially, because The climate crisis can only be avoided if every country does its part.
China hopes to dominate the renewable energy era
Not only has China taken significant steps to transition to a green economy, but the country's leaders also see the shift as an opportunity to surpass the United States and become the world's economic superpower.
China accounts for less than 18% of the world's population, but by 2023 its wind power installation capacity will account for 70% of new global installation capacity, 42% of all solar panels, 32% of all heat pumps, and 32% of all heat pumps. 57% of all electric vehicle sales. It is expected that by 2030, China will account for 44% of the world's new nuclear power installation capacity.
In 2023, China will install more solar panels than have been installed in the United States in history. China accounts for nearly 60% of the world's new renewable energy power generation expected to be put into operation in the next five years, and nearly two-thirds of the world's wind and solar projects currently under construction are in China. Therefore, China's climate pollution now appears to have peaked and is expected to decline.
A recent report by energy think tank RMI puts this shift into historical perspective. The report pointed out that in the 20th century, the United States led the transformation of the era of steel, electricity, oil, large-scale manufacturing, and information technology. The next transition will be the era of renewable energy, efficiency and electrification. But this time, China is ready to lead the new economy.
Although India has not yet transitioned to a green economy as quickly as China, its government still recognizes the importance of doing so and has been rapidly deploying solar infrastructure.
Read: Why India holds the key to stopping climate catastrophe
Which countries are responsible for climate change?
For more than a century, countries with the largest economies, such as the United States and Europe, have enriched themselves through the development of cheap fossil fuels at the expense of the global climate.
In terms of cumulative historical climate pollution, although the United States has only a quarter of the population of the two countries, the pollution it causes is 1.6 times that of China and 7 times that of India. In terms of climate pollution per capita, the United States today produces 1.8 times the pollution per capita emissions of China and 6 times the emissions per capita of India.
For people who live in countries that have historically had more climate pollution and consumed more fossil fuels per capita, it makes no sense to blame China or India. The reality is that the climate crisis cannot be solved unless every country takes action to address it.
Climate change is a collective action problem
In a 1968 paper in Science, ecologist Garrett Hardin introduced the concept of the tragedy of the commons: “Imagine a pasture open to everyone,” he wrote. “Predictably, every herdsman will try to keep as many cattle as possible on the commons. The rational herdsman concludes that his only sensible course is to add another animal to his herd. And Another; there is another. But this conclusion is reached by every rational herdsman who shares the commons. The tragedy is that each is bound to a system that forces him to live without limits in a finite world. Increase his herd.
Eventually, the ranch becomes overgrazed and everyone suffers from the overuse of shared resources. Harding also believes that the same principle applies to pollution.
The solution to the tragedy of the commons is for everyone who uses the resource to agree to do so in a sustainable way—and as political scientist Elinor Ostrom discovered, people can and do cooperate to share resources.
That’s why the Paris Climate Agreement – where nearly every country in the world agreed to reduce climate pollution to limit global warming to manageable levels – is so important. Everyone’s emissions matter. But India and especially China are taking significant steps to address their problems, despite having lower per capita and historical climate pollution than most rich countries.
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