The Atlantic Ocean won't produce any tropical cyclones for at least a few days—an unusual but not unprecedented late-August hiatus we'll discuss in a future post—but the Pacific Ocean will be filled with tropical storms, hurricanes, and hurricanes. There will be a typhoon next week.
The most serious concern by far is Typhoon Shanshan, which is expected to move north-northwestward and intensify this weekend. Shanshan may accelerate head-on into central Japan on Tuesday, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph, according to a report from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center at 11 a.m. ET on Friday. If “Shanshan” makes landfall with such intensity, it will become the third most powerful typhoon to hit one of Japan's four major islands since 1945.
At 11 a.m. EDT on Friday, “Shanshan” was upgraded to a Category 1 typhoon, with wind speeds of 75 mph and a central pressure of 983 mb. It was located 1,150 miles south-southeast of Tokyo and heading northeast at 5 mph. Move northerly. Satellite loops show that Shanshan has experienced widespread showers and thunderstorms, which are typical of low-latitude systems in the northwest Pacific, and strong upper-level outflows can be seen on satellites. Dry air to the west and moderate wind shear of 15-20 knots are slowing development.
Specific details of landfall time, location and intensity have yet to be determined, but there is broad consensus among models that Shanshan will move gently northwestward this weekend, then accelerate while tilting north-northeastward and moving quickly across the center. On Tuesday, Honshu, Japan’s largest and most populous island. Sea surface temperatures along the route will be unusually warm in late August, hovering between 29 and 30 degrees Celsius (84 and 86 degrees Fahrenheit), so conditions will be very conducive to Shanshan's rapid intensification.
In the final 24 hours before landfall, Shanshan is expected to experience low wind shear while passing through 30°C/86°F waters (about 2°C/4°F above average), along with a small The deep ocean is warm (75-100 kilojoules per square centimeter), which will help increase the chance of rapid intensification of the outbreak. Such rapid intensification before landfall is a hallmark of many recent tropical cyclones and is consistent with increases in ocean temperatures caused by human-warming climate change. Multiple studies have found that areas including the northwest Pacific and the coast of China have obvious rapid intensification trends.
Large typhoons that make landfall in Japan are not common
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, only 16 Category 3 or above typhoons have made landfall on one of Japan's four main islands (Honshu, Kyushu, Shikoku and Hokkaido) since accurate records began in 1945. Only six of those landings were on Japan's main island of Honshu, where Shanshan was expected to hit – an average of once every 13 years. Two Category 4 typhoons hit Japan: Shirley in 1965, which made landfall in Honshu with winds of 150 miles per hour, killing 60 people; and Yangsi in 1993, which made landfall in Kyushu with winds of 130 miles per hour, killing 48 people. deaths and $3 billion in damage. Japan has only experienced one Category 5 typhoon landfall – the infamous Typhoon Vera in 1959, which was Japan's deadliest typhoon, killing 5,098 people.
Tropical Storm Horn expected to pass south of Hawaii'I'm on Monday
A tropical storm watch has been placed on the Big Island of Hawaii as Tropical Storm Horn intensifies and moves toward the 50th U.S. state. As of 11 a.m. ET Friday, Horn was located about 625 miles east-southeast of Hilo, moving west at 16 mph with top winds of 45 mph and a central pressure of 1,002 MW. Horn is the first named storm to form in the central Pacific since 2019, although several other storms have moved into the region from the Northeast Pacific.
Convection around Horn was limited, and the atmosphere surrounding the storm was not particularly humid, with moderate relative humidity of about 55% to 60%. However, wind shear will drop to light to moderate this weekend, with winds around 10 knots and sea surface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius (79-81°F) should be enough for Horn to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm. Category hurricane. The first hurricane search mission into Horn is scheduled for Friday afternoon.
Track models generally agree that Horn will pass south of the Big Island, but the storm could be close enough to bring strong winds, swells and four to eight inches of rain to the eastern slopes, with strong downslope winds affecting the western slopes. Stronger effects will be seen on the southern half of the island. Much of Hawaii is in a moderate to severe drought (Figure 2), so the Horn's rainfall is expected to bring considerable drought relief, along with some isolated damaging flooding and power outages.
East of Horn (nearly 1,800 miles east of Hilo) in the remote Northeast Pacific lies powerful Hurricane Gilma, the first major hurricane of the 2024 Northeast Pacific season. At 11 a.m. ET Friday, Gilma had sustained winds of 115 mph and was heading west at 8 mph. Gilma reached upper levels of Category 3 intensity on Thursday, with maximum sustained winds peaking at 125 mph. Gilma will gradually weaken over the next few days as it moves into relatively cooler waters and pulls in drier air; it may simply be a tropical depression or remnant depression when it passes north of Hawaii late next week.
hawaiimy hurricane history
In 2023, two named storms affected Hawaii. Calvin brought widespread rainfall of two to four inches to the Big Island and Maui, causing minor flooding and localized power outages. Five to seven inches of rain fell in some places on the Big Island, according to the National Weather Service's final report.
On August 8 and 9, 2023, Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed approximately 700 miles south of Hawaii. Initial speculation is that Dora may have increased winds that fueled one of the deadliest wildfires in world history — the 2023 Maui Fire, which killed 102 people — although a report published this month in Weather & Forecast magazine A more important factor may be an unusually strong subtropical ridge that stretches from northern Hawaii to the southwestern United States, a study suggests. This ridge enhances the east-west trade winds that force their way through the Maui Mountains. In turn, as these strong winds blow toward Lahaina, they become warm and dry as they flow down the slopes, fanning flames in a thick patch of exotic grass that has dried out in the summer heat. For more background, see our August 2023 article on the situation, “What's causing the deadly Hawaii wildfires?”
For a tropical cyclone, just making landfall in Hawaii is no small achievement. Since 1949, only five named systems of tropical storm intensity or above have made landfall in Hawaii:
- Hurricane Dot made landfall on Kauai as a Category 1 hurricane on August 6, 1959, approximately two weeks before Hawaii became a state. The Dot caused six indirect deaths and $6 million in damage (1959 USD).
- On September 11, 1992, Hurricane Iniki made landfall on Kauai as a Category 4 hurricane, killing six people and causing $1.8 billion in damage (1992 USD).
- Tropical Storm Issel made landfall on the southeast coast of the Big Island of Hawaii on August 8, 2014 as a 60 mph tropical storm.
- Tropical Storm Darby made landfall on the southeast coast of the Big Island of Hawaii on July 23, 2016, with sustained winds of 40 mph. Damage was minimal and no lives were lost.
- Tropical Storm Olivia made landfall on the north shore of Maui and Lanai on September 12, 2018, with sustained winds of 45 mph. Olivia is accused of causing $25 million (2018 USD) in damage.
Additionally, post-tropical cyclone Linda hit Molokai on August 23, 2021, with sustained winds of 40 mph. There have been no reports of injuries or property damage from Linda.
Landfall requires the center of a tropical cyclone to pass over land, according to the National Hurricane Center's definition. Other hurricanes and tropical storms have also caused significant damage to Hawaii without making direct landfall, most notably Lane in 2018 ($250 million in damage in 2018) and Iwa in 1992 ($3.12 billion in damage in 1992) billion U.S. dollars). A 2016 modeling study found that we can expect a significant increase in hurricanes near Hawaii in the coming decades due to climate change; see also Jeff Masters’ August 2014 post “Climate change may increase the number of hurricanes in Hawaii. “
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