from CFACT
David Wojik
Maine just got a very strange offshore wind lease from the Federal Reserve. They call it a research lease, not a commercial development lease. It has some mysterious features worth pondering.
There could even be a multi-billion dollar ruse here. After briefly explaining the mystery, we finally consider this.
First, the lease is for a so-called “research array” of 144-megawatt turbines. Well, 144 megawatts is huge for research. The South Fork Wind Farm (fixed, not floating) that is already operating is a 12-turbine, 132-MW commercial facility, so the array will be larger than a commercial facility.
Making about a dozen floats could cost $3 billion, plus factory costs. Different websites recommend different turbine sizes, from 10 to 12 MW. Of course, if this was really research, they might have used a variety of sizes, but the total would still be huge.
Why it's so big is the first mystery, and the official explanation is too vague to justify. They mainly talk about research on topics such as efficiency, supply chains and even employment.
They also said the findings will be used in a commercial floating wind development project in the Gulf of Maine with a capacity of 15,000 megawatts. But that seems unlikely because research takes time.
Commercial leases in the Bay Area will be sold in the coming months (the Biden-Harris family wants to secure as many leases as possible before the election, in case Trump wins.) The research array must go through the same permitting process as a commercial site.
Development of the commercial site and development of the research array began simultaneously and went through the same steps. Therefore, it's difficult to see how commercial sites could benefit from this research, especially since the research could slow down array development. Studies conducted after the array is operational may even occur after the commercial facility is up and running. So who stands to benefit from this multibillion-dollar research is the second mystery.
It seems clear who will pay those billions, as the developer is supposed to negotiate a power purchase agreement (PPA) with one or more of Maine's large utilities. The developer appears to be Diamond Offshore Wind, a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation. They have long been active in the University of Maine's patented floating wind technology.
Here, things get really blurry. First, if the PPA is supposed to pay for the array, plus profits, then it's very much a commercial development. Secondly, research is expensive and unpredictable, so how do you advance a PPA to cover costs?
There's no mention that this study was funded separately from the array, which would be complicated, to say the least. For that matter, as things progress, who decides which studies are conducted? Diamond, University, or Maine? It looks like Diamond works for Maine, but it needs to make money on the deal, which makes things weird.
Having said that, there is another possibility. The project is less about research and more about building floating factories and showcasing university technology.
There is a monster wild card in the Fu Feng game, and that is the factory. Fixing the bottom wind is very simple on land. All you need is a good dock, a large crane and a place to hold the components until they are transported to the site and installed. Just a few simple components – monopile, tower, turbine and blades. All made elsewhere.
The floating wind is created from scratch on shore and then towed out to sea in its entirety. The concrete floats used in Uni's patented technology weigh 15,000 tons or more and have complex structures. The construction of a floating plant will be a difficult job.
Facts about floating winds are rarely mentioned, and when they are, the language is often deceptive. The industry talks about “ports,” not factories, and Maine's floating factories are called ports. Look at mine. Please note that this facility will be operated by Diamond.
So this is what might happen. As part of the “research,” Maine built a float factory and enough floats to prove the effectiveness of the patented Uni technology. Developers of 15,000 MW of commercial bay wind must choose technology for their individual sites. If they chose any other technology among more than a hundred candidate technologies, they would have to build factories to make it.
The presence of Uni-tech factories is a strong incentive to use this technology. We're talking about potentially $100 billion or more in float. In this case, Diamond made a lot of money, and so did UMaine and UMaine. The same goes for all suppliers and workers. Whether this is legal is a question, as demonstrating patented floating technology is not research.
Mind you, I'm not saying this is what's happening, but looking at this array of so-called studies, it does make sense. The main obstacle is that Uni-technology has never built a 10-12 MW scale project and it may not be feasible. Also, the factory design I've seen doesn't work, but that's a separate issue.
It will indeed be interesting to watch this $200 billion floating game unfold.
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