The latest forecast shows that the cyclone will move westward over the northeastern Arabian Sea, away from the Indian coast, over the next two days. (News 18)
Unlike most cyclones, the current system originated on land and intensified due to additional moisture from the ocean
The flood-hit state of Gujarat, battered by monsoon rains, is now bracing for a cyclone to form off the adjoining Kutch-Pakistan coast on Friday, in what scientists say is a “rare” event. However, once formed, the cyclone will start moving from the coast to the Arabian Sea and eventually dissipate.
Tropical cyclones usually form in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea during the pre-monsoon season (March-April-May) or the post-monsoon season (October-November-December). But the yet-to-form cyclonic storm originates over land, where it intensifies before moving west toward the coast.
According to meteorologists, cyclones do not often form during the southwest monsoon from June to September. “It is possible but very rare. There have been some examples in the past. Although it originated on land, it was driven by the intrusion of high moisture from the Arabian Sea. But once formed, the cyclone may not be very strong ,” said Monica Sharma, a senior scientist at the International School of Management in Lausanne, Switzerland.
from land to sea
On August 24, the cyclonic disturbance was first reported as a “low pressure area”. On August 25, the cyclonic disturbance became “obvious” and intensified into a “low pressure” over Madhya Pradesh. “At midnight, it moved towards Rajasthan and Gujarat. These scientific terms are used to describe the subsequent stages of cyclone formation and depend on the maximum surface wind speed.
Tropical cyclones are formed due to the instability of the atmosphere around a low-pressure area. As the low-pressure area moves, it continues to intensify and transform into a vortex with strong surface winds of nearly 62-88 km/h, rotating around it in a counterclockwise direction. .
Cyclone to hit Arabian Sea on Friday
According to meteorologists, the current cyclonic disturbance has also been moving slowly (3 kilometers per hour), leading to heavy rainfall in the state. “It is likely to move southwestward into the northeastern Arabian Sea near Kutch, adjacent to Saurashtra and the coast of Pakistan, and intensify into a cyclonic storm on August 30,” IMD forecast.
However, the cyclone is unlikely to be very strong and may gain marginal intensity before dissipating into the sea. Latest forecasts indicate that it will move westward over the northeastern Arabian Sea, away from the Indian coast, over the next two days.
Heavy rains have lashed Gujarat over the past few days and the state has been put on a “red alert”. On Thursday, several areas received more than 100-250 mm rainfall, with Devbhoomi Dwarka receiving around 275 mm rainfall. Saurashtra and Kutch received particularly heavy rainfall on Wednesday, with a staggering 430 mm of rain falling in Devbhoomi Dwarka and 380 mm in Jamnagar. The Meteorological Department has issued a warning that strong winds with gusts up to 60 magnitude will occur in the south Gujarat region, Saurashtra and Kutch coasts and the north Maharashtra coast from August 29 to 31.
Another low voltage system in the Bay of Bengal
Meanwhile, another low pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday. According to the IMD, the winds are also expected to increase and may move towards the adjoining southern coast of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha along the Bay of Bengal and intensify into a low pressure over the next two days.
Meanwhile, the monsoon trough remains active and August is coming to an end with seasonal rainfall nearly 7% above the long-term average (LPA). The rainfall in Saurashtra region is a staggering 67% higher than that in LPA. In its latest forecast, IMD expects considerable widespread rainfall over most parts of northwest and central India and the Gujarat and Ghats regions of Maharashtra in the coming days, with locally heavy rainfall on some days. rainfall.
