Stick with Finance, Financial Times; The weather isn't getting any worse – Watts yet?

Author: Linny Luken

A recent article in financial times (paywall) recounts a discussion between author Attracta Mooney and Celeste Saulo, current Secretary-General of the United Nations World Meteorological Organization. Claims in the post include that 2023 and 2024 are the hottest years on record, that recent global wildfires and droughts in parts of the Mediterranean are caused by climate change, and that extreme weather is getting worse in general. These statements are all wrong. Data undermine and often directly refute these assertions.

The article was titled “Meteorologist Celeste Saulo: 'Climate change is not a movie. It's real life.' It was essentially a gorgeous biographical article about Saulo, with whom the author sat down for a meal in Geneva, Switzerland. people over an insultingly decadent French lunch while they discuss how the rest of us need to lower our standards of living. Writer Mooney opens the article by discussing how hot it is in Geneva, suggesting that August was extremely hot at “almost 30°C” (86°F). A quick search online showed that while it was at its highest, it was still within the normal range for August in Geneva; as summer draws to a close, high temperatures in the 80s are not uncommon in Geneva.

Mooney wrote “[w]Wildfires are burning in Greece and Turkey, and large swaths of the Mediterranean are drying out as drought spreads, all just weeks after the world experiences its hottest days on record,” he continued. “2023 is the hottest year on record. year, 2024 is also coming.

Saulo agreed with Mooney's architecture. Mooney further reported that the United Nations secretary-general, Salo's boss, agreed that “we need to start adapting to a warming world in which wildfires, heat waves, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events are more severe.”

The problem is, all of this is fake, and as a meteorologist Salo should know this.

For one thing, wildfires are certainly not getting more severe or widespread. Tracking of global wildfires by NASA satellites and the European Space Agency shows that the global fire area is gradually decreasing, not increasing. (see picture below)

Drought has also not become a bigger issue, and the Mediterranean region Mooney chose to highlight is apparently a region known for hot, dry summers. The Mediterranean even has a climate type named after it, the “Mediterranean climate,” which describes a climate with “irregular rainfall, mostly in winter.”

Furthermore, the United Nations, which employs Salo, reports with “high confidence” that precipitation has actually increased in at least the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and has “low confidence” in negative global trends, as discussed in Climate. Look: Drought.

When it comes to the “hottest year on record,” much of the media frenzy is just that — media hype lacking the factual basis to make that claim.

There is plenty of evidence, such as carbon dating of medieval trees recently exposed by retreating glaciers, that other periods in relatively recent history were hotter than now.

Furthermore, many of the “record-breaking heat” measurements were only a tenth of a degree warmer than previous measurements, which is not alarming and is likely due to reanalyses of data fed by flawed climate models. resulting statistical anomalies, or due to the bias toward the urban heat island effect discussed in climate realism, for example, here , here , and here .

Data is also misused; for example, many reports in July 2023 breathlessly claimed that 3^RD and 4^th July was the hottest day ever, based on a “dataset” that doesn't actually show measured temperatures or underlying data, but rather a modeled simulation of temperatures. The Climate Reanalyzer at the University of Maine is where this claim originated. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization has publicly distanced itself from the claim, explaining that the model's output is “unsuitable” as real temperature measurements for preserving climate records.

In fact, there is a growing trend of extreme weather, as Salo knows, otherwise why else would the only evidence she cites be what she calls “28 catastrophic events” in the United States that “will cost at least 10% each in 2023” billion U.S. dollars.” “As a writer financial timesMooney certainly knows that losses from a disaster are not necessarily evidence of a worsening disaster at all; other factors are involved, such as increases in property values ​​and the expansion of the bull's-eye effect. climate realism This has been pointed out several times, including here , here , and here .

The juxtaposition of these two articles discussing climate change and policy, including how people need to change the way they eat and holiday, with frequent breaks to discuss how delicious the lunches they had in prosperous Geneva was an oddity for a journalist 's writing choices seek to emphasize the urgency of climate action. this financial times It should stick to what it is known for – financial news and analysis – and leave climate touting articles to other outlets, especially if the depth of their climate reporting work is to uncritically publish lies.