Rainfall in August also exceeded forecasts, exceeding forecasts by more than 15%. (PTI file)
“Very heavy rains are likely to occur in the foothills of the Himalayas, especially in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Punjab and Rajasthan, leading to landslides/floods. So we should remain cautious,” said Director Meteorological Department Mohar Patra said.
Following heavy rains in August, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted above-normal rainfall in September as well. Overall rainfall is forecast to be 109% above the month's long term average (LPA) of 168mm.
“We expect low pressure systems to develop almost every week, which will bring continuous rainfall. Very heavy rains are likely to occur in the foothills of the Himalayas, especially in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, J&K, Punjab and Rajasthan. leading to landslides/floods. So we should remain cautious,” Director General of Meteorology (DGM) M Mohapatra said on Saturday.
At least two such systems (called cyclonic disturbances) are likely to form in the coming week, one in the Arabian Sea and another in the Bay of Bengal. Then, two more such systems are likely to form during the second and third weeks – all of which are expected to move over Odisha towards western Uttar Pradesh.
According to the Meteorological Department, most of the systems forming in the Bay of Bengal this month are likely to move northwest to reach Rajasthan, bringing rain to northwest India. Low pressure systems are the weather systems that cause most of the rainfall during the monsoon. To provide more power, the monsoon trough may also shift to the Himalayan foothills during this period.
On the other hand, rainfall is likely to decrease in parts of southern peninsular India like Rayalseema, southern Karnataka, northern Bihar and northeastern Uttar Pradesh and most parts of northeast India. Overall, the southwest monsoon is currently 7% above the long-term average (LPA).
Daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to remain above normal. The extended forecast for the next two weeks also predicts heavy rains in the states of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh this week, and in central, northwest and northern India over the next two weeks.
The southwest monsoon gained momentum in July after a poor performance in June, bringing above-normal rainfall in the past two months. While rainfall in July was 9% above normal, higher than the IMD forecast, rainfall in August also exceeded forecasts by more than 15%. This is well above the “normal rainfall” predicted by the IMD – 106% below the long-term average (LPA).
The Bay of Bengal monsoon branch remains active throughout the month, producing a variety of weather systems. There are six such systems, one of which intensifies into a rare cyclone in the Arabian Sea during the monsoon.
