Comment by Kip Hansen — September 8, 2024
The weather media is paying a lot of attention to this year's hurricane season. We even republished an article on WUWT – The Mysteries Surrounding the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season . CO2 is definitely not the driver – from NoTricksZone, itself a repost translated from KlimaNachrichten. Not bad, but to me, not very satisfying – after all, no one would argue that the slowness of a single hurricane season might actually be driven by changes in carbon dioxide2 concentration in the atmosphere.
Samples from the media, in no particular order:
“Recently, the upper troposphere (around 50,000 or 60,000 feet) has been very warm, a byproduct of global warming, which may make the Atlantic more stable than normal and limit the growth of thunderstorms, despite record sea surface temperatures.”
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“The Atlantic Ocean is near record warmth, and a favorable La Niña climate cycle is developing in the tropical Pacific. However, during what would normally be the peak of hurricane season, the ocean basin is stubbornly in a deep sleep.
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“This hurricane season has baffled experts and defied predictions. What’s going on?
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“Hurricane forecasters expect below-normal cyclone activity during the peak of the season in September… The tropical activity period from August 12 to September 3 marks the quietest period for tropical weather development in 56 years. Colorado State The university said activity in the basin was either below normal or close to normal as of Sept. 16, with only a 10 percent chance of above-normal conditions developing.
Finally, actually quoting someone who may have expertise:
“If you told me a month ago that nothing would happen after Ernesto, I wouldn't have believed you,” said Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert and research scientist at Colorado State University. “What a surprise.” “Hurricane forecasters, including Klotzbach, predicted that a calendar flip from August to September would revive the season. Many widely used forecast models showed the same thing. It didn't success.
We all saw the headlines earlier this year:
NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season — La Niña and above-average ocean temperatures are key drivers of tropical activity (May 23, 2024)
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“supercharged Atlantic hurricane season is coming – The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be much worse than last year, with 20 to 25 named storms expected, and experts are warning that now is the time to prepare before storms and hurricanes start hitting.
Then, later this year, just a month ago:
Highly active Atlantic hurricane season likely to continue — Near-record sea surface temperatures and the potential for La Niña are key factors (August 8, 2024)
The latest press release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) includes this stunning nighttime satellite image of Hurricane Beryl as it approaches the Texas coast:
[The full high-resolution image is well worth downloading here ]
Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University even issued a new prediction on August 6th Still predicting an above-average season:
Most readers already know that, thankfully, this season is not doing well:
We sit there and it's still the 8thth Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for September and the next 7 days:
The orange area represents a weather phenomenon that “is likely to form as a tropical depression early or mid next week while the system slowly moves northwest and north in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.” So, a tropical depression isn't even on the horizon yet. The yellow zone looks like this: “The system will likely experience some slow development as the disturbance meanders through early next week before beginning to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic by mid to late next week.”
What might be forming? Tropical depression:
“Cyclones are characterized by a circular wind pattern or circulation.
Meteorologists divide the stages of hurricane development into three categories:
Tropical depression – winds less than 36 mph
Tropical storm — winds between 36 mph and 74 mph
Hurricane – winds exceeding 74 mph” [ source ]
Therefore, to develop into a hurricane, an area of low pressure with thunderstorms must first produce annular winds with maximum sustained winds less than 39 mph. Without circulating wind currents, winds slightly slower than this would be called a “near gale,” or a “gale” is a strong, sustained wind with a speed between 39 mph and 54 mph. This term Often used as a description of marine weather.
Note: I accidentally sailed in a strong wind once and I didn’t like it.
The seven-day outlook means we will pass the historic peak day for Atlantic hurricane activity (below) without adding to the statistics released on September 1 (above).
from 10th In September, hurricane activity historically begins to slow dramatically 1Yingshi October. 1 afterYingshi In October, the probability of hurricanes dropped by 40% to 50% from the peak. to 1Yingshi In November, the season is basically over, but it will officially end on the 30th.
If I were still in the Virgin Islands (US or UK) I would feel very confident and Not running Head to Salinas, Puerto Rico, the closest reliable and safe hurricane hole. Salinas has the advantage of having a favorable wind and sailing is fast and easy, taking less than 24 hours, most of which can be done overnight, even being chased by storms coming from the east.
Does this mean the islands, the Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf Coast, the Florida coast, the U.S. East Coast, or the Bahamas can relax and think they've dodged this season's hurricanes? Absolutely not.
As NOAA keeps reminding us, it only takes one hurricane to hit your area to cause disaster.
Questions asked by the weather/climate media are:
What does the apparent hurricane forecast failure mean?
Did we really get it wrong?
Is there still a chance for the season to heat up and regain lost ground?
How could we/they make such a big mistake?
Is there something fundamentally wrong with our model?
These are good questions and there are already many answers and many excuses.
Many readers here are very familiar with hurricane science, and I'd like to read their perspectives in the comments.
Here's my take:
The basic cognitive error I've discovered is confusing the following:
1. Favorable conditions and indicators, based on experience from past seasons and assumptions regarding hurricane occurrence
and
2. Reason
Hurricane predictions are naturally and quite rightly based on history (identifying conditions that seem to cause more hurricanes) and statistical historical results (such as peak season charts), and then combining these with hypothesized causes (things we think should cause more hurricanes) – Make guesses – predictions – about events for the next season.
This is the absolutely correct way to make these predictions. There is no place that is out of place…
Apart from…..
Statistics about the past are not the reason.
Hypotheses about the causes (or origins) of hurricanes are not the reason.
But, but, but… yes, I know. I suspect you are right, if so Not the reason—— This means that focusing on non-causes can lead our predictions astray – so…
What causes hurricanes?
Good question! To be at the top of the class.
Can I get an answer? Well, whoops, I asked Windows Copilot and it gave a scientific* non-answer that didn't include any reasons, just favorable conditions and hypothesis About the origins of hurricanes.
* – “Looks like science, but it’s not” [ source ]
We know the favorable conditions, we know the unfavorable conditions, and we have some understanding of the atmospheric mechanics involved (low pressure, circular wind patterns, etc.).
If we knew the real cause, we would just have to see if reason exists (or may exist) and predictions are made.
Oddly enough, David Fultz may have seen the answer in his 1963 spin-dish experiment in Chicago. [ here and here ] Edward Lorenz's toy climate model L96 could reveal the potentially chaotic origins of hurricanes. In both cases, the reasons themselves are relevant to the subject of chaos theory research.
If this is true—and I'm not drawing a line here—then the origins of hurricanes are essentially buried beneath all the historical statistics, favorable conditions, and assumptions— Unpredictable beforehand.
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Author comments:
Don't get me wrong, we can safely predict that there will be a hurricane season, and that there will be tropical cyclones, some of which will develop into hurricanes. But we can't predict exactly where or when there will be next hurricane season, or even the remainder of this hurricane season, nor can we predict where those developing hurricanes will go.
I bet there are conflicting opinions out there and I want to read them.
I don't usually include graphics in this section, but I'm interested in this one:
After all, we're still likely to get some hurricanes – more than one (732) were recorded in the past September.
Thank you for reading.
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