Many ethical places (New York, California, UK, Australia) want to compete for the title of “climate leader”. But let's face it, at least where the population is large, no one can top Germany. [emphasis, links added]
In Germany, back in the early 1990s, they started building wind and solar power on a large scale.
Their total wind and solar nameplate capacity at the end of 2023 is 148 GW, about 2.5 times average demand (about 60 GW) and about 1.5 times peak demand (about 100 GW). So must Germany’s days of using fossil fuels be numbered?
It's time for another update on the progress of Germany's energy nirvana. The bottom line is, just like the Red Queen, Germany ran faster and faster to stay in place. At the same time, it is destroying its economy.
My last update from Germany was on June 15, covering the latest data for 2023 at that time.
Several news media, including Reuters, excitedly announced the news, with the headline “Renewable energy share to reach 55% in Germany's power grid by 2023.” Are you fooled by the headline into thinking 55% comes from wind and solar?
As I pointed out in my June 15th post, of that 55%, 8.4% comes from “biomass” (i.e. wood chips imported mainly from the US), 3% comes from “hydro” and “other”, leaving only 43.6% comes from “biomass” (i.e. wood chips imported mainly from the United States).
By the way, biomass and hydropower facilities have a capacity of only 12.9 GW, which means they generate about 25% of the electricity generated by wind and solar facilities, which have less than 10% capacity. This is not surprising.
New data for Germany for the first half of 2024 is out; plus other relevant economic news continues to pour in.
Clean Energy Wire released electricity consumption data for the first half of 2024 from Germany's UBA (Federal Environment Agency) on July 18. The proportion of “renewable energy” has increased again, currently reaching 57%!
Preliminary data released by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) show that in the first half of 2024, renewable energy accounted for approximately 57% of Germany's total electricity consumption. Renewable energy power generation reached 147 terawatt hours (TWh), an increase of 9% over the same period last year.
Of course, again they mix “biomass” and hydropower with “renewable energy.” Should we abandon these?
In the first six months of 2024, wind power will account for the largest share of renewable energy generation (about 51%), followed by photovoltaics (24%), biomass (15%) and hydropower (8%).
Therefore, biomass and hydropower account for 23% of 57% or 13.1%. The remaining maximum of 43.9% comes from wind and solar, up from 43.6% in 2023. Wind and solar percentages add rounding error.
The problem is that, at the same time, Germany has significantly increased its wind and solar capacity.
According to the chart on this page (also from Clean Energy Wire and provided to UBA), German solar capacity increased from 67.6 GW at the end of 2022 to 79.2 GW at the end of 2023, an increase of more than 17%; wind installation capacity increased from 66.1 GW to 68.8 GW, an increase of more than 4%.
To gain an additional 0.3% of the power generation market share, additional investment in wind and solar energy is considerable.
Now let's look at Germany's overall economic picture. First, how do its electricity prices compare to elsewhere?
Here's a very useful chart from the Energy Policy Research Foundation, comparing consumer electricity prices in the second half of 2023 in EU countries and US states:
Germany tops the list, with electricity bills exceeding 38 cents per kilowatt hour, well above twice the U.S. average.
Next up is German GDP data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The peak occurred in the third quarter of 2022, reaching $770.6 billion, and has declined slightly since then. Some might call it a recession, and a pretty long one at that.
The most recent quarterly figure (Q2 2024) was $766.4 billion. This is serious stagnation. In comparison, the Biden-Harris economic performance is mediocre, with US GDP growing at 2-3% per year. If Germany's economy had grown by just 2% over the past two years, it would now be growing at around $800 billion per quarter, rather than the reported $766 billion.
Assuming high energy prices may not be good for an economy known for large manufacturing. You may have seen the recent news about Volkswagen. Reuters daily report on September 2:
Volkswagen… is considering closing a factory in Germany for the first time, a move that signals Europe's top automaker faces growing price pressure from Asian rivals. … Volkswagen AG's works council said it considered a major car plant and a parts factory in Germany obsolete and vowed to “strongly resist” the executive board's plans.
In related news, a German-speaking friend sent an English translation of this August 12 article from Le Monde. The title is “Germany's Electrical Fallacy.” excerpt:
Clean and cheap electricity is the great hope of the energy transition. People have been saying for years that a free “job miracle” will happen. But now demand is collapsing. . . . [In the first half of 2024]The Central Association of the German Automobile Industry reported that orders for electric vehicles fell by 47%. The Federal Association of the German Heating Industry reported that heat pump sales fell by 54%. On the other hand, what is increasing: demand for fuel vehicles and fuel heaters.
“Is the energy transition going to be cheaper now? Yes. That’s it,” promised Patrick Graichen, later the federal government’s chief planner and director of the Agora Energy Transition think tank, in an interview with WELT in 2017: “The harvest years for the energy transition will be Already in sight. Fossil fuels will soon become unaffordable, and green electricity is getting cheaper. But this long-standing narrative is increasingly being questioned—and not just by consumers. Questioning… Chairman Constantin H. Alsheimer said: “The certainty assumed in the old forecasts that electrification of industry, transportation and construction would be economically beneficial, The continued rise in renewable energy will drive down prices for end customers, but the certainty of these forecasts is now tenuous.
“Fragile”? I would say that those old “certainties” have been completely shattered. But maybe it's just a matter of translation.
Let me conclude with a message from UBA Director Dirk Messner quoted in the Clean Energy Wire article of July 18 (emphasis added):
“The continued growth of the share of renewable energy in electricity production is a success,” said UBA Director Dirk Messner. However, Germany still needs to accelerate the expansion of renewable energy capabilities to meet its climate and energy goalsEspecially in the solar photovoltaic (PV) sector, he warned. Messner calls for planning security and careful further development of subsidy mechanismsand ways to maintain grid charges in areas with higher renewable energy expansion.
Building more and more wind and solar, once again increasing subsidies, is pushing Germany over an economic cliff. It will continue until the electorate finally wakes up. I don't know when that will be.
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