Hurricane Francine is about to make landfall in Louisiana » Yale Climate Connection

Hurricane Francine is about to make landfall in central Louisiana, expected to hit Wednesday afternoon or evening as a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph (145 kph). Francine closed its eyewall overnight, allowing it to take advantage of record warm ocean temperatures, and intensified into a Category 1 top storm with winds of 90 mph at 2 a.m. ET Wednesday. However, high wind shear is now affecting the hurricane, and Francine is not expected to intensify further before making landfall.

Francine will be the third hurricane to make landfall in the United States so far in 2024, following Beryl, a Category 1 hurricane that hit Texas, and Debbie, a Category 1 hurricane that hit Big Bend, Florida. The record for most hurricanes making landfall in the United States is six, most recently set in 2020.

Francine strength levels off

Francine was located 150 miles (240 kilometers) southwest of Morgantown, Louisiana, at 11 a.m. EDT Wednesday, moving northeast at 13 mph (20 kph) with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph / hour (150 km/h), the central air pressure is 976 mb. There has been no change in wind direction since 2am ET Wednesday and the barometric pressure has only dropped 1 mb, so Francine's intensity remains level.

Satellite imagery and radar indicate Francine is experiencing high winds of 20-30 knots. Invisible to the eye, the cloud pattern is elongated along the west-southwest to north-northeast axis of strong upper winds affecting Francine, with an incomplete eyewall on the south side and high wind shear pushing dry air to the south. core.

Francine brought sustained hurricane-force winds of 75-79 mph (121-127 kph) to two offshore oil platforms in the eyewall on Wednesday morning. These winds reach a height of approximately 150 feet (46 m), which is stronger than standard winds measured at the surface (33 feet (10 meters)).

Heavy rain from the storm impacted the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Wednesday morning, with rainfall amounts typically measuring 0.5 to 1 inch (12.7 to 25 millimeters).

Francine Weather Forecast

There is little mystery left about Francine's future. The hurricane will make landfall on the central coast of Louisiana between 6 and 8 pm EST today, with the center passing west of New Orleans tonight. Francine is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane when it makes landfall, with maximum sustained winds of 75-90 mph (121-145 km/h), and will rapidly weaken once inland.

wind

Damaging winds will be a significant hazard tonight, primarily affecting areas in east-central Louisiana, west of New Orleans and east of Lafayette. Morgantown (population 11,000) is most at risk from wind damage and related power outages. In its wind probability forecast at 11 a.m. ET Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center predicted a 36 percent chance of sustained hurricane-force winds of 74 mph (119 kph) or greater in Morgantown. These are the best odds of any city on the list.

storm surge

Storm surges of 1 to 2 feet (0.6-1.2 m) were already observed along much of the central and eastern Louisiana coast and the Mississippi coast on Wednesday morning, according to tide data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. High tides are causing some minor coastal flooding. A larger storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.5-3 m) is expected to occur along the Louisiana coast near and to the right of the center landfall later this afternoon and tonight, causing severe flooding.

Fortunately, Francine is expected to be near low tide: At 11 a.m. ET Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center predicted Francine would make landfall near 7 p.m. Low tide at Amerada Pass in central Louisiana is Wednesday at 5:30 pm EDT (21:30Z), and high tide is at 3:30 am EDT (7:30Z) Thursday. The difference in water levels between high and low tide is about 1.5 feet (0.5 m), so the highest water levels on the Francine Coast will be a foot or more lower than when a hurricane strikes at high tide.

With large areas of shallow water offshore, the Louisiana coast is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world to high storm surges. Francine's angle as it approached the coast from the south-southwest made it less of a storm surge threat to New Orleans than storms approaching from the south or southeast.

rainfall

Francine's four to six inches of heavy rain will cause inland flooding, which will be a significant hazard from the storm. The National Weather Service has placed much of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi at “moderate” risk for flash flooding, meaning there is a 40 percent chance of flash flooding in the area.

Francine’s simulated storm beyond her reach: Hurricane Zeta 2020

Hurricane Zeta made landfall in southeastern Louisiana on October 28, 2020, as a Category 3 storm with winds of 115 mph. Zeta's fast forward speed of 40 mph (64 km/h) allowed it to sustain hurricane-force winds farther inland than most hurricanes, with gusts as high as 94 mph as it passed New Orleans /hour (151 km/h). Zeta brought peak storm surges of 6 to 10 feet (1.8-3 m) to the coast and widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches (10-20 cm). The hurricane killed five people and caused $5.3 billion in damage, but was deemed not significant enough to have its name retired.

Francine won't be as powerful as Zeta and will travel through less populated areas, so the impact is likely to be much less than Zeta's.