Author: Robert Bradley Jr.
The U.S. Department of Energy says: “Modern wind farms are reliable, safe, state-of-the-art power plants with well-tested technology that meet approved standards and have hundreds of thousands of hours of operating experience.” Unless they operate under normal conditions or Failed under abnormal conditions.
A recent headline read: “Wind turbines destroyed by Typhoon Yagi.” There’s (not so good) news for wind power (during peak hurricane season in 2024). The 150 mph typhoon (a Category 4 on the hurricane scale) didn't just destroy the old turbine; The new “more efficient typhoon-resistant version” was also razed to the ground. For multi-million dollar structures, risk and insurance costs are major concerns.
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The U.S. offshore wind industry will survive, but only because projects have been abandoned or delayed. But what would happen if such exposed structures were built, especially along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts?
this Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences The research article “Quantifying hurricane risk from offshore wind turbines” (February 13, 2012) remains relevant to the energy policy debate today. In fact, the Department of Energy's recent assertive statements have been preemptively refuted by five scholar-authors.
The article concludes as follows:
“The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that if 20% of the U.S.'s electricity came from wind, the installed capacity of shallow-water turbines would exceed 50 gigawatts. Hurricanes are a potential risk for these turbines. Turbine tower bending has been observed during typhoons, but The United States has yet to build any offshore wind turbines.
“We propose a probabilistic model to estimate the number of turbines in offshore wind farms destroyed by hurricanes. We apply this model to estimate the risk of offshore wind farms in four representative locations in the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coast waters. Among developers The most vulnerable areas currently under active consideration, where nearly half of the turbines on farms could be destroyed within 20 years.
“Typically, wind turbines are designed according to engineering design codes in Northern Europe and the North Sea, where almost all offshore and coastal wind turbines are built. These codes specify maximum sustained wind speeds with a 50-year return period of 42.5–51.4 m /s (83–100 knots), lower than high-intensity hurricanes.
“Offshore wind turbines…will be at risk from Atlantic hurricanes…Wind turbines are vulnerable to hurricanes because the maximum wind speeds in these storms can exceed the wind turbine's design limits. Failure modes may include blade loss and support tower buckling.”
In 2003, a seven-turbine wind farm in Okinawa, Japan, was destroyed by Typhoon Maemi, and several turbines in China were damaged by Typhoon Dujuan. Here we only consider tower buckling because the blades are relatively easy to replace (although their loss may cause other structural damage).
“Category three and above hurricanes could destroy half or more of the turbines in some locations, and that's a very significant risk.”
Final comments
Category 4 and 5 hurricanes pose a threat to existing and even the most advanced industrial wind turbines. It is understood that Category 3 (the baseline of the above article) is the real threat. Category 6 (which climate alarmists predict is the future) will make all existing structures in hurricane-prone waters vulnerable.
The author remains politically correct by envisioning a new future:
Proper mitigation measures—increasing design reference wind loads, ensuring nacelles can transition to rapidly changing winds, locating most wind farms in lower-risk areas—could significantly improve the odds that offshore wind will help meet U.S. requirements. need.
But this would increase costs, reduce production and/or limit offshore wind below politically desirable levels. All of this adds to already dire economic conditions in the U.S. and the bleak outlook for offshore wind
Relevant
