At 11 a.m. ET on Friday, September 13, Tropical Storm Gordon becomes the seventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic season, beginning a long, slow journey across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic—assuming Gordon can Survive this trek. Based on records between 1991 and 2020, this year's seventh named Atlantic storm arrives on September 3 on average, so Gordon arrives more than a week later than a typical “G” storm.
As of 11 a.m. ET Friday, Gordon was in the remote tropical North Atlantic, about 1,000 miles west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Gordon has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and has minimal tropical storm intensity. Gordon is moving west-northwest at 12 mph.
Pulsating showers and thunderstorms (convection) around Gordon Center were pushed eastward by wind shear of about 15 knots. This wind shear should gradually weaken over the next few days and sea surface temperatures at Gordon will become increasingly warmer, rising from around 27°C (81°F) to 28-29°C by early next year ( 82-84°F) week. However, Gordon will also be surrounded by a large swath of dry air, causing mid-level relative humidity to drop from around 65% on Friday to around 50% Sunday into Monday, so any initial intensification will likely be suppressed over the weekend.
Gordon does not pose a threat to any land area for at least the next few days, and perhaps never. Weak steering currents will develop over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic next week, which may slow Gordon's overall westward speed. Dry air could push Gordon back into tropical depression status at almost any time. If Gordon can go all the way strong, it's also more likely to make a comeback in the Caribbean or the far east of North America.
The remnants of Francine's forces continue to attack parts of the South
Showers and thunderstorms continued Friday around post-tropical cyclone Francine, which is centered in northeastern Arkansas and moving southeast at 3 mph. Francine hit the interior of central Louisiana as a Category 2 hurricane around 5 p.m. Central time on Wednesday, injuring at least three people and bringing heavy rain and winds of 70 to 100 mph to the east, including the New Orleans area. of gusty winds. More than 550,000 people were without power in Louisiana, Alabama and Mississippi, and widespread flooding prompted numerous water rescues.
Take a look at the wind gusts at local weather stations during Hurricane Francine yesterday. The largest wind gust recorded offshore. Inland, LFT experienced gusts of up to 31mph, while some stations in St Mary's Parish recorded gusts of 61-62mph. pic.twitter.com/qG0DEH5nAP
— Breanna Lewis (@breyannalwx) September 13, 2024
Francine has the highest preliminary rainfall totals Sunday night through Wednesday night, with 9.69 inches in Covington, Louisiana; 8.63″ in Waveland, Mississippi; and Nonconnah Creek, Tennessee. 8.05″.
A man whose pickup truck got stuck in floodwaters from Hurricane Francine was rescued by a good Samaritan who also happens to be an emergency room nurse. https://t.co/ZzecfOmPSC
— NBC10 Philadelphia (@NBCPhiladelphia) September 13, 2024
Steve Bowen, chief scientific officer of Gallagher Re, one of the world's largest insurance brokerages, said in a direct message: “Francine could cause billions of dollars of damage. Economic damage. He added: “It could have been worse, but fortunately the landfall occurred in a sparsely populated area of Louisiana. While wind-related damage may be lower than initially feared, furlong Sheen's flood-related impacts will be higher — including outside of Louisiana.
#francing Really exceptional performance in the South Central. We're seeing widespread 4-6″+ (total rainfall by 11pm last night) along with wind gusts over 50 mph. #memphis yesterday! #MEMWx #TNwx #ARwx #MSwx pic.twitter.com/CknZ6A7Fhp
— Corey Smith (@wxcory) September 13, 2024
This weekend, northern Alabama will see the heaviest rainfall in the former Francine area, with rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches possible. A few periods of heavy rainfall are possible from eastern Arkansas to western Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. In addition to the risk of localized flash flooding, Francine's rainfall will largely benefit this swath of the South, which is experiencing moderate to severe drought in most areas, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor released Sept. 12 .
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, a weak disturbance known as Invest 94L moved across the northern Leeward Islands, battling dry air and unlikely to develop further. In its Tropical Weather Outlook issued at 2 p.m. ET on Friday, the National Hurricane Center lowered the probability of the disturbance to near zero. Even more worrisome is the stalled frontal border stretching offshore from the Carolinas. Some European and GFS model members indicate that an area of low pressure may develop along the front and evolve into a tropical or (more likely) subtropical cyclone later this weekend or early next week, most likely to the northwest. The coast moves. The system has a 10% chance of development by Sunday and a 40% chance of development by next Friday. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Helen.
Tropical Storm Ileana is moving into the Gulf of California
Despite its disarray, Tropical Storm Ileana dragged a strong convective barrier from the northeastern tropical Pacific to southern Baja California on Friday and could push moisture into the southwestern United States over the weekend. As of 11 a.m. ET Friday, Ileana was about 55 miles southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
Ileana is expected to sweep across the southeastern Baja Peninsula Friday night and move across the Gulf of California through much of the weekend, possibly weakening to a tropical depression by Sunday. Wind damage is likely to be minimal, but Ileana could bring more than 8 to 12 inches of rain to parts of the southern Baja Peninsula and northern Sinaloa, possibly causing localized flash flooding and mudslides. Moisture sweeping northward from Ileana could cause scattered severe thunderstorms over Arizona from Saturday night into Monday and could again trigger localized flash flooding.
If nothing else, Ileana's cloud cover should help end Phoenix's streak of record-breaking 100-degree weather – which as of Thursday, September 12 has been recorded for 109 days in a row, including meteorological summer ( every day from June to August).
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