The battle over net zero emissions has just begun – what does Watt think about it?

not many people know

Paul Homewood

h/t Paul Kolker

Scotland's last refinery – Grangemouth – to close we learned last week400 jobs were lost.

The factory, co-owned by Sir Jim Ratcliffe's Ineos, is set to close due to UK to soon ban new petrol and diesel cars Reach the net zero target.

Grangemouth produces most of the petrol, diesel, heating oil and aviation fuel used in Scotland, northern England and Northern Ireland. Ineos said the closure reflected lower fuel demand due to the “imminent ban on new petrol and diesel vehicles”.

Unite union general secretary Sharon Graham also highlighted the car ban, although she accused Grangemouth's “billionaire owners” of “industrial sabotage”. The boss of the UK’s second largest union said: “The path to net zero emissions cannot be paid for with workers’ jobs.”

Along with Grangemouth, the government recently confirmed the closure of the last two blast furnaces at the iconic Port Talbot steelworks, Another 2,500 people were laid off.

Gary Smith, leader of the GMB, Britain's third largest union, said Labour's green policies were “hollowing out working-class communities”. He said the government must stop “decarbonizing through deindustrialization”.

At last week's trade union conference, Unite and the GMB highlighted union concerns about the path to net zero – with Labor determined to pursue it more firmly than the Conservatives.

Two unions have pushed through a joint motion opposing Labour's upcoming ban on new North Sea drilling licenses championed by Energy Minister Ed Miliband.

They want to provide “iron” protection for affected workers – around 30,000 North Sea offshore oil and gas jobs, plus another 200,000 or so in the UK oil and gas supply chain.

Graham pointed to the closure of coal mines in the 1980s. “Unite will not stand idly by and watch these workers become the miners of our generation,” she said. The first union was marred by chaos and violence just two months into its existence.

Recent attention has focused on the row between Downing Street and the Labor left Means test of pensioners' winter fuel bills – Downing Street complaints have largely disappeared.

But there are signs that a more substantive, long-term conflict is emerging as the real industrial costs of Britain's drive to achieve a legally binding net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050 come into sharper focus.

Grangemouth and Port Talbot are just the latest in a growing list of net-zero emissions-related factory closures, which have long provided decent, high wages in parts of the country where such jobs are hard to come by. work.

The disruption of Britain's North Sea oil and gas operations and a raft of related activity will lead to huge industrial tensions – exposing the gulf between Labour's relatively affluent, often city-based “environmental” voters and its traditional base.

Voters have become increasingly aware that net zero is exacerbating the cost of living crisis. Yes, the UK has a relatively high share of what Miliband insists is called “cheap renewable energy” – generating around two-fifths of UK electricity in recent months.

But the subsidies involved, combined with electricity costs, mean that despite, or even because of, the growing use of renewable energy, UK businesses and households pay some of the highest electricity prices in Europe.

Unless net zero soon starts delivering benefits to ordinary people, rather than just increasing their financial burden, the consensus to pursue the 2050 target – which many in our political and media classes take for granted – may be in jeopardy Severe stress.

As unions fight for tens of thousands of blue-collar jobs during Sir Keir Starmer's first term in office, the resulting environmental and industrial conflict threatens to split the Labor movement.

The first big test will be a ban on new petrol and diesel cars in the UK and EU from 2035, although used car sales will remain legal.

The Labor manifesto promises to bring this target forward to 2030 – I strongly suspect this will not happen. I expect the 2035 deadline to be extended as well.

Why? With consumer uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) far lower than expected, implementing the planned ban could devastate much of the UK car industry, which employs around 1 million people, while losing large swaths of our car market China's production of electric vehicles, which has been ceded to large-scale subsidies, already accounts for about 60% of global production.

UK car sales are up about 3% on last year but are still 15% below pre-lockdown levels. Among them, electric vehicle sales have declined sharply, with the market share remaining at around 18% in the past three years.

Last week I interviewed Robert ForrestThe co-founder and chief executive of Vertu Motors, one of the UK's largest car retailers, told The Daily Telegraph's Planet Normal podcast. He described how the upcoming ban on petrol and diesel would affect sales.

That's because, since January, manufacturers have faced fines if 22% of the cars they sell in the UK are not fully electric – up to £15,000 for each car that doesn't comply. The target will be raised to 28% next year and is expected to reach 80% by 2030 – even if a total ban remains in 2035.

Forrester describes how this leads to “Rationing” of petrol and diesel cars As the ban looms, sluggish sales of electric cars have sent prices soaring, meaning manufacturers can only avoid hefty fines by slashing production of petrol and diesel cars.

He is the latest car industry veteran to highlight the dangers of a rapid shift to electric vehicles – joining bosses at Ford, Stellantis and Renault.

Governments in the UK and across Europe will face a fierce industrial battle over the coming years to push for net zero policies, with trade union and popular resistance set to grow.

With each high-profile factory closure, the intensity of this fight intensifies.

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