from climaterealism
Author: H. Sterling Burnett
The Associated Press (AP) published a report describing a study by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that claimed climate change is costing Africa up to 5% of its GDP. The data shows this is wrong. Extreme weather in Africa is not becoming more frequent or severe, and gross domestic product in different regions and specific countries in Africa, cited by the World Meteorological Organization and discussed in the AP story, has grown significantly during recent climate change.
Monika Pronczuk, the author of the AP report, uncritically repeated the World Meteorological Organization's statement that “African countries are losing up to 5% of their GDP each year due to climate change.” The total value is falling every year because they bear a heavier burden of climate change than the rest of the world.
“‘Over the past 60 years, Africa has experienced a warming trend that exceeds the global average,’ World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Soro warned, which is affecting everything from food security to public health to peace. In every aspect.
She should check the data.
as climate realism After much discussion, hard data from the United Nations and other governments and international agencies refute any suggestion that climate change is making weather worse or causing food insecurity in Africa. The latter statement has been debunked many times climate realism For example, articles here , here , and here show that, except in areas of civil unrest and cross-border conflict triggered by religious and political strife, crop yields and yields across the continent regularly set records during mild climate change.
climate realism It also shows that recent extreme weather events are actually not unusual in African history, nor have they become more severe in recent decades, such as here , here and here . Research shows that in a handful of countries in Africa, food production has been hampered and economic growth has declined for years, invariably due to political conflicts such as civil war, cross-border conflicts or political corruption. Climate change is not a factor.
The gist of the World Meteorological Organization report is that African countries have to spend a disproportionate share of their income to mitigate climate change as climate change causes increasingly severe weather and a decline in gross domestic product. But since the former is false, then the latter is also false. In fact, data consistently show that in the regions and countries discussed in the AP story and in the World Meteorological Organization report, GDP has increased significantly during recent climate change. In fact, China's GDP growth rate has reached or exceeded the world's average GDP growth rate. For example:
- Data from the African Development Bank (ADB) shows that since 2000, the West African region's GDP growth has reached or exceeded 3%, exceeding 4% in two of the four years. Further forecasts for each country’s growth for the remainder of 2024 and into 2025 state: “[g]Benin (6.4%), The Gambia (6.2%), Togo (6%), Mali (4.8%) are expected to be boosted by rising agricultural output, expansion of the services sector and reforms to increase private sector participation in the energy and mining sectors. growth, Sierra Leone (4.6%) and Burkina Faso (4.1%).
- World Bank data shows that excluding high-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the GDP growth rate of the poorest countries has exceeded 6% five times since 2000, once was 5%, and five times was 4%, and only fell into negative territory. Growth takes place within one year, and 2020 is the year of the pandemic. The GDP growth rates of poor sub-Saharan African countries in 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 4.3%, 3.7% and 3% respectively.
The AP singled out Mali and Zambia as countries suffering economic hardship due to climate change, but the data tells a different story. Mali's GDP has grown every year for the past decade except 2020, with the growth rate exceeding 5% in five of the past 10 years (soaring to 7.1% in 2014) and exceeding 3% every other year. %.
Zambia’s gross domestic product history tells a similar story. Zambia's economic growth rate in 2023 is 5.8%, the highest in a single year in the past decade. Except for the 2020 epidemic, Zambia's GDP has grown throughout the year, with all growth rates exceeding 3% annually except for two growth years.
WMO is a specialized agency of the United Nations with responsibilities covering weather, climate and water resources. It's staffed by meteorologists and other scientists who specialize in weather, not economists, so it's not known for its sharp economic acumen or analysis. No one goes to the World Meteorological Organization to analyze economic trends or predict economic growth. Based on an uninformed and deeply flawed analysis of the threat of climate change to Africa's gross domestic product, it might be a good idea for the World Meteorological Organization to stick to its own line and leave economic forecasting to economists.
Additionally, the AP should probably do some simple fact-checking (which only takes a few minutes through the magic of the Internet) and look at existing hard data on trends before pushing for an economic analysis from an organization that lacks obvious economic expertise. In fact, even if economists publish something and the AP uncritically repeats it as if it were gospel truth, it's still a good idea to check the data.
H. Sterling Burnett
Dr. H. Sterling Burnett is director of the Arthur Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy and editor-in-chief of Environment and Climate News. In addition to directing the Heartland Institute's Arthur B. Robinson Center for Climate and Environmental Policy, Burrett puts together environment and climate news and is editor of the Heartland Climate Change Weekly email, as well as Environment and Climate Host of a news podcast.
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