David Middleton Guest 'Unless Environmental Marxist Terrorist Groups Shut Us Down'
September 16, 2024
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), September 2024 Data value: U.S. petroleum and other liquids supplies, consumption and inventories and U.S. natural gas supplies, consumption and inventories
We recently implemented a new model for forecasting crude oil and natural gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico federal offshore (GOM) Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). In our latest outlook, we forecast GOM production to remain relatively flat, with new fields offsetting natural production declines from existing fields.
We forecast that GOM crude oil production will be 1.8 million barrels per day in 2024, 1.9 million barrels per day in 2025, and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2023. We expect GOM natural gas production to average daily production in 2024 and 2025. 1.8 billion cubic feet (Bcf/d), compared with 2.0 Bcf/d in 2023.
We expect GOM to have 12 new fields come on stream during 2024 and 2025, otherwise we expect GOM production to decline. Seven of the fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks or subsea extensions of existing surface floating production units (FPUs). We expect four new FPUs to produce crude oil and natural gas from five additional fields. We expect fields that are already on stream in 2024 to contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024, while fields that will come on stream in 2024 or 2025 will contribute an average of 231,000 b/d in 2025 as additional production comes online and production ramps up. barrels/day of crude oil production.
For more information about our new models, forecasts and supporting assumptions, and new infrastructure coming online, please see our recent article, EIA expects Gulf of Mexico oil and gas production to be flat after model update.
Main contributors: Eulalia Muñoz Cortijo
Label: Forecast/Forecast, Natural Gas, STEO (Short-Term Energy Outlook), Liquid Fuels, Crude Oil, Petroleum/Petroleum, Production/Supply, Gulf of Mexico
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Assuming the industry prevails in court, average oil production in the Gulf of Mexico will reach 1.9 million barrels per day by 2025.
We expect 12 new fields in GOM to begin production during 2024 and 2025. Four new FPUs will be used for production from five fields, with one new FPU (Salamanca FPU) targeting production from two fields. We expect fields that begin production in 2024 to contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024, and fields that begin production in 2024 or 2025 to contribute 231,000 b/d in 2025 as additional production comes online and ramps up of crude oil production.
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Peak Oil My @$$…
The Gulf of Mexico used to be a huge natural gas province when natural gas prices were >$8/Mcf. Today, most production is associated natural gas. A typical Gulf of Mexico well produces 1 million cubic feet (mmcf) per 1,000 barrels of oil.
