time The magazine recently published an article titled “Is climate change causing deadly floods in Europe?” While providing some balance, it is asserted that recent flooding in Poland and other parts of Europe reflects broader patterns of deterioration caused by climate change. [emphasis, links added]
This is wrong.
There is nothing in the data to suggest a “pattern” of increasing flood severity or incidence.
time Acknowledging that “it is difficult to draw conclusive links between this event and climate change”, but then saying: “Experts say the worst floods to hit the region in at least two decades fit within a wider pattern of extreme weather events. “
after, time To quote a professor at the University of Bristol Attribution studies are recommended to determine whether flooding is caused by climate change:
“Linking single events to the impacts of climate change is complex,” said Paul Bates, a professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol who specializes in flood science.
To prove definitively whether climate change is causing flooding in Europe, researchers will need to conduct attribution studies, which will take at least several weeks, Bates said.
“Every time we do an attribution study, we tend to find that the events we see are exacerbated by climate change, and I'm pretty sure that's the case here as well, but we haven't conclusively determined that yet,” Bates said.
A few weeks can be surprisingly fast for a peer-reviewed study.
as climate realism It has been pointed out many times that attribution studies are overly trusted by the media and scientists and are often used as propaganda rather than science.
Attribution studies compare unvalidated, counterfactual models of Earth's climate and emissions, assuming a priori that any differences between models are due to human-caused carbon dioxide emissions.
Neither model represents how the world actually is, and the modelers assume conclusions before drawing them, Models are used simply to confirm their pre-existing beliefs.
As a result, the models never found anything other than human influence on weather events, Almost without exception, it is shown that human activity may have contributed to every event studied.
While warmer air does hold more moisture, this does not directly translate into an increase in heavy rainfall.
also, Even within a country's borders, warming does not continue to occur. Some places (such as cities) are warming more severely than rural areas, and some places can even see a cooling trend.
Global average warming will not cause regional storm.
The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states There are currently no signs of increased heavy rainfall and stormwater (caused by heavy rain or rainfall) flooding.
Only in the most extreme, unrealistic scenarios does the IPCC speculate with moderate confidence that climate change may affect flooding after 2050.
The European floods discussed in the article were not unprecedented. Most of the floods in Europe this year were caused by the Danube River, and the floods in 1997 were even more severe.
A similar flood devastated Budapest in 1838, Vienna has always struggled with the Danube, and there are many other long-standing historical records of major floods in the region's history.
In recent events, cities that have invested in flood management have fared better than those that have not – and this is true regardless of whether climate change is a factor in flood trends.
comprehensive, timeThe article isn't that scary, and it's careful not to make any overly conclusive statements when it comes to climate connections.
However, existing models that suggest climate change is worsening severe weather such as floods are wrong when the available data show no changing trends.
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