Nothing will happen to the next real or manipulated 1.5C.
Lin Cen
A well-established equation based on empirical data shows that an increase from 400 parts per million (ppm) to 800 ppm causes the same amount of warming as an increase from 200 ppm to 400 ppm (Pierre Humbert, 2011) . That is, the impact of each additional unit of carbon dioxide is less than the impact of the unit before it. Furthermore, fairly simple calculations suggest that, holding all other indirect factors (such as clouds) constant, a doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations should result in about one degree Celsius (1°C) of direct warming—a value that is not typically considered shocking (Wilson and Gea-Banacloche, 2012),
“Simple calculations… suggest that eliminating U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 would avoid a temperature increase of 0.0084 degrees Celsius,” says a short paper written by Ph.D. Richard Lindzen, MIT; William Harper, Princeton University; and William A. van Wijngaarden, York University, Toronto. On the Fahrenheit scale, the amount of warming avoided is 0.015 degrees.
