from climate realism
Author: Linny Luken
time The magazine recently published an article titled “Is climate change causing Europe's deadly floods?” while providing some balance, asserting that recent flooding in Poland and other parts of Europe reflects the broader consequences of climate change. Deterioration mode. This is wrong. There is nothing in the data to suggest a “pattern” of increasing flood severity or incidence.
time Acknowledging that “it is difficult to draw conclusive links between this event and climate change,” but then saying, “Experts say the worst flooding to hit the region in at least two decades fits within a broader pattern of extreme weather events. “
after, time A professor at the University of Bristol recommends conducting attribution studies to determine whether flooding is caused by climate change:
“It's really difficult to link single events to the impacts of climate change,” said Paul Bates, a professor of hydrology at the University of Bristol who specializes in flood science. To prove definitively whether climate change is causing flooding in Europe, researchers will need to conduct attribution studies, which will take at least several weeks, Bates said. “Every time we do an attribution study, we tend to find that the events we see are exacerbated by climate change, and I'm pretty sure that's the case here as well, but we haven't conclusively determined that yet,” Bates said.
For a peer-reviewed study, it took weeks, which is surprisingly fast.
as climate realism It has been pointed out many times before that attribution studies are overly trusted by the media and scientists and are often used as propaganda rather than science. Attribution studies compare unvalidated, counterfactual models of Earth's climate and emissions, assuming a priori that any differences between models are due to human-caused carbon dioxide emissions. Neither model is representative of the real world, and modelers assume conclusions before drawing them, using the models only to confirm their pre-existing beliefs. As a result, these models never find anything other than human influence on weather events, almost always indicating that human activity likely contributed to every event studied.
While warmer air does hold more moisture, this does not directly translate into an increase in heavy rainfall. In addition, even within a country, warming does not occur continuously. The degree of warming in some places (such as cities) is more serious than that in rural areas, and some places can even see a cooling trend. Global average warming will not cause regional storm.
6th Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeth Assessment reports indicate that there are currently no signs of increased heavy rainfall and stormwater (caused by heavy rainfall) flooding. Only in the most extreme, unrealistic scenarios does the IPCC speculate with moderate confidence that climate change may affect flooding after 2050.
Figure 1 – Table 12.12 | United Nations IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Page 90 – Chapter 12. The emergence of climate impact drivers (CIDs)
The European floods discussed in the article were not unprecedented. The Danube, which carries most of Europe's floods this year, suffered even more severe floods in 1997. history.
In recent events, cities that have invested in flood management have fared better than those that have not – and this is true regardless of whether climate change is a factor in flood trends. comprehensive, time's post isn't that bad, being careful not to make any overly certain statements when it comes to climate connections. However, existing models that suggest climate change is worsening severe weather such as floods are wrong when the available data show no changing trends.
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