September 26th An article on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) website titled “NASA finds that despite future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise in Pacific islands is inevitable” points out that no matter what actions are taken to prevent climate change, small island countries will They are all destined to disappear and change under the waves. This statement is both wrong and irrelevant. This is wrong because actual data shows sea level rise (SLR) in Kiribati and other island nations is much lower than NASA forecasts. Doesn't matter, since it's been documented that many Pacific islands actually grew in size over time, increasing in land area.
The American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) said: “According to the latest research by NASA, regardless of whether greenhouse gas emissions change in the short term, sea levels in Pacific island countries such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and Fiji will increase in the next 30 years. The interior will rise by at least 20 centimeters.
A quick check of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Kiribati tide gauge data shows this is wrong.
Simple math shows the value after 30 years: 2.34 mm/year X 30 years = 70.2 mm or 7.02 cm, about one third NASA predicts that height will increase by 20 centimeters in 30 years. The estimated 30-year SLR, based on tide gauge data from Tuvalu and Fiji, is also much lower than NASA's predictions, which were uncritically repeated by ABC.
The reason for this discrepancy is that the science tool NASA uses to make the predictions, the Pacific Flood Analysis Tool, uses model predictions rather than actual data. The website says this:
The latest generation of global climate models are used to account for global mean temperature differences and ocean dynamic regional sea level rise, and to assess the contribution of vertical land motion using similar methods to those in past reports. IPCC AR6 combines multiple methods to predict future changes in ice sheets, which are the main source of future sea level rise and constitute a major source of future sea level rise. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasting the timing and magnitude of possible future increases. (emphasis mine)
Apparently, NASA uses climate models from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). However, it is worth noting that when you first visit the Pacific Flood Analysis Tool website, a message will pop up containing the following disclaimer:
Disclaimer: NASA's Pacific Flood Analysis Tool provides a scientific assessment of the frequency and extent of potential flooding due to sea level rise, based on peer-reviewed techniques. Results are provided without any guarantee of any kind.
Of course, the ABC ignored the fact that NASA had to issue such a broad “no guarantee” warning about the highly uncertain SLR predictions, and they reported on it as if it was fact.
climate realism It has been written several times that the sixth generation climate models (CMIP6) used in AR6 are wrong because they run too hot and create future projections that have no reasonable basis when compared to actual data.
These climate models produced “incredibly high-temperature projections of future warming,” causing SLR's predictions to be wildly wrong.
But none of that matters because climate realism Frequently debunks false claims about Pacific islands being sunk by monocular cameras. As early as October 2020, articles such as “New Climate Digest: Islands Are Not Losing Land or Population to Rising Sea Levels” made it clear that this claim is false.
For example, climate activists often claim that the island nation of Tuvalu is shrinking due to rising sea levels. However, a recent peer-reviewed study found that eight of Tuvalu's nine coral atolls Already grown up Three-quarters of Tuvalu's 101 coral reef islands have seen similar growth in recent decades.
Other peer-reviewed studies (see here , here and here ) confirm that the same process is and will continue to allow other Pacific islands to keep pace with rising sea levels. A full summary of island growth as sea levels rise is published in “Islands and Sea Level Rise” on Climateataglance.com.
ABC failed miserably in conducting basic journalistic research for this story. The fact that fact-checking wasn't even attempted is so shocking that one has to wonder if this was purposeful and not just a sign of incompetence. A passage at the very bottom of their story suggests this may have been purposeful.
ABC grudgingly admitted, “While scientists say rising sea levels will have a major impact on Pacific island nations, some studies suggest hundreds of islands across the Pacific are expanding in land area as sediment, coral and other debris wash ashore. .
Right there. ABC clearly trusts the output of computer models rather than real-world data. ABC, like many other outlets, appears to downplay any good news about climate and focus almost entirely on bad news to further publicize the climate crisis.
Anthony Watts
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow in environment and climate at the Heartland Institute. Since 1978, Watts has been in the weather business both in front of and behind the camera as a live television meteorologist and currently oversees daily broadcast forecasts. He created television weather graphics presentation systems, professional weather instruments, and co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He runs the world's most viewed climate website, the award-winning wattsupwiththat.com.
This article was originally published on ClimateREALISM
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