Asheville, NC, seem Like a great place to escape the worst of the warming world. The city's four-season climate is very pleasant, with daily highs typically around 84°F in the summer (unusually low for the southeastern United States) and less cold in the winter. There is usually plenty of moisture year-round, but due to the mountainous rain shadow, Asheville experiences less humidity than most of its neighbors. The city takes climate seriously: The results of the climate resiliency assessment are incorporated into Asheville’s comprehensive planning documents.
In a 2018 Rolling Stone article, Jeff Goodell profiled a climate refugee who considered the Tampa area before settling in Asheville. “No place is without risk, but in Asheville, the risk appears to be manageable,” Jeff Kaplan told Goodell. A 2021 segment on Blue Ridge Public Radio painted Asheville as a climate “winner.”
Then Hurricane Helen came. After hitting the Florida Panhandle as a Category 4 storm, it swept across the southern Appalachians in a strange left-hook shape, pushing a lot of moisture up the slopes. To make matters worse, a previous rainfall event (PRE) before Helen dropped 6 to 12 inches of rain on the area the day before the storm.
The result was one of the most devastating, longest-lasting, and deadliest hurricane flooding in the United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. ), Helen destroyed roads, damaged power and water lines, paralyzed communications, and claimed dozens of lives.
Helen wasn't the first hurricane to cause more trouble in the Appalachians than it did when it made landfall. In August 1969, Hurricane Camille—one of only four Category 5 hurricanes ever to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf or Atlantic coasts—slammed the Mississippi Gulf Coast with full force, with maximum sustained winds estimated at 175 mph. However, Camille's aftermath had an equally catastrophic impact on the mountains of western Virginia, with rainfall as high as 27 inches. Of the 259 deaths caused by Camille in the United States, more than half (153) were caused by landslides and flooding in Virginia.
Less than three years later, in June 1972, Hurricane Agnes struck the Florida Panhandle as a Category 1 before reaching New York City as a tropical storm. But most of the death and destruction caused by Agnes was in Pennsylvania due to record rainfall and massive, catastrophic flooding.
This isn't the first time Asheville and the region has experienced severe flooding, either. Most of Helen's rainfall records are from 1916, which the city calls “the flood by which all other floods are measured.” As recently as 2004, the region suffered severe flooding after hurricanes Francis and Ivan struck the interior.
What makes Helen unique is that it arrived at a time when hurricane behavior was being significantly exacerbated in many ways by human-caused climate change. It dealt a severe blow to a place now widely considered to be at least somewhat immune to the worst impacts of climate change.
Many people looking for places to protect themselves from climate change in the United States are gravitating toward small, progressive cities in relatively cooler regions of the Midwest and East. The spikes in heat, drought and wildfires that have plagued the West seem more likely to be alleviated in these apparent havens. Many of these countries are already undertaking climate adaptation efforts.
It turns out that much of the area east of the Rockies is getting wetter. Particularly in the central and southern Appalachians, when 1980-2011 climate averages were replaced with 1991-2020 data, official annual precipitation increased by 5% to 10% in some areas. In Asheville, precipitation in a typical year jumps from 37.32 inches to 40.61 inches.
The characteristics of rain and snow in these wet climates are also changing. Overall, dry spells are intensifying and are accompanied by more intense downpours, meaning the terrain may shift more dramatically from dry to flooded and back again. While long-term droughts in the Southeast are not becoming more frequent, when they occur, they tend to be more severe, according to the latest U.S. National Climate Assessment. The report also noted that flash droughts (droughts that develop particularly quickly) are more common in the Southeast than in any other region.
In the fall of 2016, parts of the southern Appalachian Mountains suffered an unusual and rapidly intensifying drought that culminated in severe wildfires in Tennessee's Great Smoky Mountains in November. The fires destroyed more than 2,000 structures and claimed 14 lives, the deadliest toll from wildfires in the eastern United States in nearly 70 years.
Flood disaster hits several of the most famous climate refuges
Of all regions in the country, the Midwest and Northeast experienced the largest increases in rainfall during the wettest 1% of the day (see Figure 1 above). The Southeast is not far behind.
Like Asheville, several other oft-cited climate change oases across the Midwest and Eastern United States have experienced landmark rainfall and flooding in recent years.
- Duluth, MinnesotaThe city, dubbed “climate-proof Duluth” in a 2023 New York Times article (and the subject of a study of how climate migration is transforming the city), held a press conference on June 19-20, 2012. The city experienced its worst flooding in history on April 1, when a record 7.24 inches of rain fell in the city in 24 hours. More widespread heavy rain occurred in northeastern Minnesota on June 18, 2024, with many weather stations reporting rainfall amounts of 5 inches to 7.5 inches – daily rainfall totals are expected to return every 500 seconds, according to the National Weather Service to the year 1000.
- Vermont It has long been a potential climate refuge for the United States, known for its eco-friendly reputation, abundant green spaces and mountains, and generally mild summers. But in August 2011, former Hurricane Irene swept through the state as a tropical storm, bringing heavy rainfall and triggering one of the worst disasters in Vermont's history. In some areas, the disasters rivaled or even exceeded the 1927 disaster. The infamous flood. Then in 2023, weeks of early summer wildfire smoke filtered south from Canada, followed by the massive Vermont floods of July 10-11. The flooding, triggered by up to 9.61 inches of rain, caused more than $2.2 billion in damage to northern New England and triggered the region's first-ever flash flood emergency.
Describing the motivations of local climate refugees she interviewed, Cheryl Morse of the University of Vermont told the nonprofit news service VTDigger: “In their imaginations, Vermont presents a safer climate, with Plenty of water, land and small community settlements But after the 2023 disaster, Jared Ulmer, climate and health program manager for the Vermont Department of Health, told VTDigger: “This summer, Vermont is in a bubble. Might be a bit of a bust, this might just be a myth. ” [an] Ideal climate refuge.
Likewise, Asheville, which is widely viewed as immune or virtually immune to human-modified climate change, will undoubtedly undergo some painful revisions.
To be sure, there are iron-clad ways to eliminate or reduce some climate change risks. Staying away from the coastline apparently protects you from rising sea levels. Many well-publicized climate havens are indeed less vulnerable to brutal heat waves and massive wildfires.
But “less likely to occur” does not mean “immune”, and the impression of safety may be wrong. It turns out that northern Vermont has had the highest number of disaster declarations in the United States over the past 23 years, Dr. Jeff Masters writes in What Should You Prepare for a Climate Change Storm? Published on this website on August 20th.
Masters also emphasized that there are other perspectives to consider besides climate:
… Some of these places may not be good places to relocate if there are deficiencies in government, urban infrastructure, or social and economic conditions. For example, I like to promote my home state of Michigan as a climate paradise. But Michigan’s power grid is poor, with the second-highest number of power outages among all states, behind Texas, which is much larger (Figure 1). Therefore, it is a good idea to consider the quality of the infrastructure in the state you are considering moving to.
Geographic “treatments” for problems are often limited. Human-modified climates are intertwined with natural changes, and they touch us in some way even when we think we are beyond their control. All the more reason, therefore, to work towards achieving deep emissions reductions as early as possible and redouble our commitment to climate adaptation – including timely warning and flexible response when black swan events are imminent.
postscript: Whether in a climate haven or a hotspot, reliable weather guidance is vital
On the afternoon of Tuesday, September 24, two days before Helen's arrival, the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (WPC) warned of possible landslides and multiple flash floods in the southern Appalachians. On Wednesday, the National Weather Service's local office in Greenville-Spartanburg, South Carolina, warned that “severe to catastrophic flooding is possible in parts of our area.” [forecast] By Wednesday afternoon, the WPC had placed parts of the area affected by Helen under a rare high risk outlook due to excessive flooding leading to rainfall (see tweet embedded below).
Just a few hours later, the first round of heavy rain came. One can only hope that residents and officials take these warnings as seriously as possible and respond to them to the best of their ability. For apparent climate change safe havens and those on the front lines of a warming climate, the guidance provided by the National Weather Service can be a veritable lifesaver.
Dr. Jeff Masters contributed to this article. We will provide a full update on the tropical Atlantic in our next Eye of the Storm article.
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